It now appears that the following elements are in place, based on press reports:
1. The parliament has finalized the budget and a vote is expected next week to approve it.
2. The IMF funding is in place.
3. The major oil contracts have been signed and approved.
4. A major security operation has forestalled several planned attacks and rounded up the terrorists that had been in place in Baghdad to disrupt the impending RV.
5. The elections have been scheduled and the blocs are getting ready to launch their campaigns.
Our intel has indicated the following:
1. The IMF (and therefore the US) have signed off on the RV.
2. Shabibi has signed off on the RV and relased it to Maliki.
3. Maliki has approved the RV and handed it back to Shabibi.
4. The US and Iraq have reached an understanding regarding the handling of the security files and the economic files (including the RV).
5. The RV would have the backing of the US, World Bank and IMF.
6. Iraq needs an internationally recognized currency in order to repay the IMF loans and the first installment will be due in March.
7. The studies concerning the value of the IQD that could be supported have been prepared and reviewed.
8. Iraq is in the process of joining the GCC and needs a functional currency to do so.
All of which raises a question: WHAT ARE THEY WAITING FOR?
Does anyone have a clue about what they could be waiting for? Is it just cold feet? Procrastination? Please - any thought would be appreciated...
TIDBIT:
My thought is that they have a window of a couple of weeks before this thing really has to RV. So, if they feel they are in a position to continue capturing the bad buys, and cleaning up their government before this thing pops, it's probably in their best interest to continue doing that... Then RV on a much firmer "foundation" as a country and government. I too am hoping for sooner rather than later though. Maybe all is ready for this weekend... We'll see.
Thursday, January 14, 2010
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3 comments:
Probably wanting for that little thing call the UN CHAPTER 7 SANCTIONS THAT PROHIBITS COUNTRIES WITH ANY TYPE OF TRADE WITH IRAQ EXCEPT FOR HUMANITARIAN REASONS. Something that Iraq has been trying to get out from under for the last 19 YEARS. Now I do not have all the intel everyone else seems to have however, "I am, so therefore I think". In other words, I did my own research. There has been a lot happening this last week with the Chapter 7 issue and Kuwait. Way to much to list here. However, I find it interesting that on Jan 27, 2010 the UN Sec. Counsel has that date set for a "debate" on the Middle East. Something very good may come out of it. IE Lifting Chapter 7 Sanctions. Now as far as an RV goes. It could happen before the Election or a short time after the Election. That's my opinion I may be wrong.
I feel it's all in the timing of the announcement.
Whoever has the power and is running for PM in March wants to make the most of the reval announcement to make him look like the national hero and the best man for the PM job.
It will have the greatest impact on those who can vote for the PM.
He wants the timing of the announcement to be at a time so that his popularity with these voters peaks near or on election day.
If he waits too long, like beyond today or Sunday, I feel he won't have enough time to have his popularity recognized in time for the election.
Iraq's political sense of timing may be entirely different from ours when it comes to campaigning, although whenever IMF and the World Bank want the reval to be announced, it will be announced then.
My understanding is that the IMF wanted the reval to be completed by January 12.
Maybe they can give the nudge to the Iraqis to get off the dime - for it is time!!
Thanks guys! very good comments.
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