Currencies January 20, 2010, 7:33PM EST
After months of gloomy talk, the currency is mounting a surprising rebound. The health of the U.S. recovery will be key to its continued strength
A couple of months ago, the U.S. dollar wasn't going to win any popularity contests. Currency markets reflected worries that the federal government's debt burden was too heavy, the American economy too damaged, and U.S. interest rates too low to support the currency over the long term.
Now, it appears, the buck is back. The U.S. dollar hit its highest level against the euro in five months on Jan. 20. The euro trades at $1.41, 10¢ below its peak in late November.
The dollar index—measuring the greenback against a basket of international currencies—hit its highest level since September, trading at 78.36.
It's not as if all the worries about the U.S. dollar have evaporated in the last couple of months. Markets reflect various currencies'—and various economies'—relative strengths.
As recently as November, the dollar was taking a "psychological beating," says Brian Dolan, chief currency strategist at Forex.com. But it has bounced back on good U.S. economic news and bad news from Japan and Europe, he says.
"While the U.S. recovery isn't perfect, it's progressing faster than the Japanese and European recoveries," says Alexander Young, international equity strategist at Standard & Poor's.
Wounded Euro
Few developed economies have a cheery story to tell these days. Europe, in particular, has been hurt by worries about the fiscal situation in euro zone members like Greece. Last month, all three major international credit rating agencies lowered their assessments of Greece's government debt.
"It's almost like a race between the walking wounded," Young says.
A weak currency might sound like a bad thing, but in fact it can aid economies in distress. "When we're having economic troubles, the weaker dollar helps," says Mike Rourke, chief market strategist at brokerage BTIG.
A weak dollar, for example, makes U.S. companies' products and services more competitive on a global basis. (And a strong euro has hurt European exporters.) A cheaper greenback also boosts overseas profits for U.S. companies with large international operations.
For investors, the impact of swings in the dollar can be significant. "If the dollar weakens, it's good news for U.S. investors because they make more money in their foreign investments," notes Michele Gambera, chief economist at Ibbotson Associates, a subsidiary of Morningstar (MORN).
Critics of President Barack Obama blame his fiscal policies for the weaker dollar, but Gambera calls this analysis "politically motivated." He notes the dollar has been losing strength against the euro since late 2000, when the greenback was worth 70.5% more than today. Even after the recent rebound, the dollar is undervalued against other industrialized currencies, Gambera says.
Dollar Could Rise Further
Those bullish on the U.S. dollar believe its relatively low value and improving U.S. economic prospects give it further room to rise. American companies and the U.S. economy are reaping the benefits of a weaker currency, says Geoffrey Pazzanese, portfolio manager at Federated Investors (FII). That makes the U.S. a more attractive place to put money, especially compared with Japan and Europe, he adds.
"As we reap the benefits [of the dollar's decline over the last decade], there will be pressure on the dollar to appreciate over time," Pazzanese says.
The dollar's rally could stall if traders detect a weaker-than-expected U.S. economic recovery or continued worries about the U.S. debt burden. "Everybody is going to be watching the deficit," says Uri Landesman, portfolio manager at ING Investment Management (ING).
For investors, the weakening dollar in 2009 coincided with a rising stock market. But, as the dollar has strengthened, U.S. equities have continued to do well. "It's almost a win-win [situation] for equity investors," Young says. A weaker dollar makes U.S. exports more competitive and boosts overseas profits, while a rising dollar reflects optimism about the U.S. economy. Both help stocks, he says.
The movements of currencies over the short term are very difficult to predict, despite the big effect that currency swings can have on investor portfolios.
Emerging Markets' Appeal
For those trying to invest for the long term, currency experts advise seeking out high-quality investments in countries where strong economic growth is expected.
"You want to look at where the economic growth is going to be in the next five to 10 years," says Georgetown University finance professor Reena Aggarwal. "You want to make sure you have exposure to those parts of the world."
That's why many investors are favoring fast-growing emerging economies, she says.
If the emerging-market bulls are right, the dollar's ascendancy vs. its traditional peers, the euro and the yen, may not mean as much this time around, as the currency arena has more heavyweight participants. Countries like China, India, and Brazil could be the next to gain prominence in the clash of global currencies. Still, the buck's current strength signals that, for now, the dollar's status as the world's supreme currency is intact and the U.S. economic recovery is on track.
http://www.businessweek.com/investor...rss_topStories
Wednesday, January 20, 2010
BAMA POST - Dinar Vets
Bank Notifications
Listen folks, I am no fan of B.S. I do not have any motive other than to pass on information. You can read my posts and see if I make sense or not, you decide. I do not know Medic, Sonny, Adam, TerryK, Frank, Mailman or anyone else and so I will not accuse them of lying or pumping. If you want to do that, it is your right. I own a lot of dinar and I have not and will not take a picture of it and send it to you for proof. If that keeps you from reading my post, bully for you.
Having said that, I will pass on what I know to be true and then all you fun loving, well intentioned bashers can get busy.
First, on Medics post, he is talking about a particular bank. He has called it CB in the past. Could be Compass Bank or some other bank, who knows. I do not, as I am not a member of his site. I mention Compass Bank because I have personal experience with them. They are now BBVA Compass, an international bank domiciled in Spain with the domestic headquarters in Houston.
Second, the claim that some make that "there is no way a bank would notify a branch" is a very bold statement. Without having intimate knowledge of the inner-workings of the particular bank mentioned or even banks in general, this statement is nothing more than speculation either based on your own experience at best and at worst it is a pure guess. Using the absolute term "no way" implies that one knows exactly what causes people to act and that all possible acts are known. This opinion, stated as fact, is no different than all other opinions of "fact" that we see here daily. For me to say "there is no way a bank would....." is in essence the same as me saying "the RV is happening tomorrow". While both statements are put forth as fact from on who has knowledge, they are both merely statements of opinion based on information, personal knowledge, personal agendas, experiences unique to the individual, and personal biases.
While common sense tells us that a corporate bank headquarters would not be notified of a change in the Dinar and further that they would not then pass that information on to the branch level, common sense does not always carry the day. Numerous examples could be put forth from each of our own experiences showing that while a person or a group of people should have acted in a certain and expected way, they in fact acted in a way totally to contrary to the behavior dictated by common sense.
Now for the information I know to be true. Take this, in light of the above statements, as you wish.
Within Compass Bank, there is a Foreign Exchange Department. This department is active throughout most major cities where Compass has a branch. Any of these branches can exchange USD into other currencies in which they buy or sell. Most of the branch locations send currency to the main office in Houston for processing. The foreign currency is verified and is then processed using a currency vendor. The details of this process I am not familiar with, I only know that the bank buys the currency from a vendor and sells it back to a vendor. This is where the bank captures the "spread", thereby making a profit on the exchange. Located in the Houston office is the top trader in Foreign Currency within Compass Bank. Her name is Kathy. If you want to call her, the number was given in a previous post, or you can google Compass Bank.
On two previous occasions, Kathy has received a "notice" from the currency vendor that a change was pending with the Iraqi Dinar. She indicated that these notices come up to 7 days in advance in order to give the retail currency dealers, i.e. banks and forex locations, time to prepare personal for the change. As we all know, even though notice was given of a change, a change did not occur. Kathy mentioned that this is the first occasion in her career in foreign exchange that this has occurred.
The third notice of a change with the Iraqi Dinar was received by Kathy 6 days ago. Will something happen this time? We can only wait and see.
My point is this: Banks and departments in banks do indeed receive notice that a change is occurring. Good, honest, well intentioned people do in fact pass the information on to those that they either believe must have the information in order to perform the duties required by their position within the organization or to those whom they have a relationship and have promised to keep in the loop.
The fact that every bank does not know or has not been given notice or even that a close family member works at a bank and has no knowledge of a change, does not necessarily mean that everyone is a liar and is only out to scam and hurt others. More likely, it is an indicator that their position within the bank or the bank itself either does not require the information in order to perform their job or that their supervisors do not know themselves.
Should a change with the IDQ not be forthcoming, instead of assuming that everyone is a pumper, a liar, and an unscrupulous *******, consider as an alternative that the information they received was thought to be accurate when it was given and something must have changed.
Do not spend money you do not have to buy more dinars based on information received on this or any other site. Hope for the best and be gracious when the best is delayed. Only make statements that you believe to be true based on the information you have received and expect others to do the same.
This investment is a lesson in patience, humility, common courtesy, and gratitude. Learn these lessons well and when the RV happens you will have gained more than money.
Listen folks, I am no fan of B.S. I do not have any motive other than to pass on information. You can read my posts and see if I make sense or not, you decide. I do not know Medic, Sonny, Adam, TerryK, Frank, Mailman or anyone else and so I will not accuse them of lying or pumping. If you want to do that, it is your right. I own a lot of dinar and I have not and will not take a picture of it and send it to you for proof. If that keeps you from reading my post, bully for you.
Having said that, I will pass on what I know to be true and then all you fun loving, well intentioned bashers can get busy.
First, on Medics post, he is talking about a particular bank. He has called it CB in the past. Could be Compass Bank or some other bank, who knows. I do not, as I am not a member of his site. I mention Compass Bank because I have personal experience with them. They are now BBVA Compass, an international bank domiciled in Spain with the domestic headquarters in Houston.
Second, the claim that some make that "there is no way a bank would notify a branch" is a very bold statement. Without having intimate knowledge of the inner-workings of the particular bank mentioned or even banks in general, this statement is nothing more than speculation either based on your own experience at best and at worst it is a pure guess. Using the absolute term "no way" implies that one knows exactly what causes people to act and that all possible acts are known. This opinion, stated as fact, is no different than all other opinions of "fact" that we see here daily. For me to say "there is no way a bank would....." is in essence the same as me saying "the RV is happening tomorrow". While both statements are put forth as fact from on who has knowledge, they are both merely statements of opinion based on information, personal knowledge, personal agendas, experiences unique to the individual, and personal biases.
While common sense tells us that a corporate bank headquarters would not be notified of a change in the Dinar and further that they would not then pass that information on to the branch level, common sense does not always carry the day. Numerous examples could be put forth from each of our own experiences showing that while a person or a group of people should have acted in a certain and expected way, they in fact acted in a way totally to contrary to the behavior dictated by common sense.
Now for the information I know to be true. Take this, in light of the above statements, as you wish.
Within Compass Bank, there is a Foreign Exchange Department. This department is active throughout most major cities where Compass has a branch. Any of these branches can exchange USD into other currencies in which they buy or sell. Most of the branch locations send currency to the main office in Houston for processing. The foreign currency is verified and is then processed using a currency vendor. The details of this process I am not familiar with, I only know that the bank buys the currency from a vendor and sells it back to a vendor. This is where the bank captures the "spread", thereby making a profit on the exchange. Located in the Houston office is the top trader in Foreign Currency within Compass Bank. Her name is Kathy. If you want to call her, the number was given in a previous post, or you can google Compass Bank.
On two previous occasions, Kathy has received a "notice" from the currency vendor that a change was pending with the Iraqi Dinar. She indicated that these notices come up to 7 days in advance in order to give the retail currency dealers, i.e. banks and forex locations, time to prepare personal for the change. As we all know, even though notice was given of a change, a change did not occur. Kathy mentioned that this is the first occasion in her career in foreign exchange that this has occurred.
The third notice of a change with the Iraqi Dinar was received by Kathy 6 days ago. Will something happen this time? We can only wait and see.
My point is this: Banks and departments in banks do indeed receive notice that a change is occurring. Good, honest, well intentioned people do in fact pass the information on to those that they either believe must have the information in order to perform the duties required by their position within the organization or to those whom they have a relationship and have promised to keep in the loop.
The fact that every bank does not know or has not been given notice or even that a close family member works at a bank and has no knowledge of a change, does not necessarily mean that everyone is a liar and is only out to scam and hurt others. More likely, it is an indicator that their position within the bank or the bank itself either does not require the information in order to perform their job or that their supervisors do not know themselves.
Should a change with the IDQ not be forthcoming, instead of assuming that everyone is a pumper, a liar, and an unscrupulous *******, consider as an alternative that the information they received was thought to be accurate when it was given and something must have changed.
Do not spend money you do not have to buy more dinars based on information received on this or any other site. Hope for the best and be gracious when the best is delayed. Only make statements that you believe to be true based on the information you have received and expect others to do the same.
This investment is a lesson in patience, humility, common courtesy, and gratitude. Learn these lessons well and when the RV happens you will have gained more than money.
INT'L EFFORT TO PASS RESOLUTION TO LIFT RESTRICTIONS ON IRAQ NEXT MONTH - CH VII
Pave the way for saving the country from Chapter VII
The Ministry of Foreign Affairs to step up moves to lift restrictions in the area of disarmament that impede the country's efforts in the field of scientific research and paving the way for out of Chapter VII through the issuance of a resolution by the UN Security Council next month.
He said Foreign Minister Hoshyar Zebari said in an official letter sent to the parliament speaker, got the "morning", a copy of: "The ministry is working with friends to adopt a resolution from the Security Council is to lift all restrictions imposed on Iraq in the field of disarmament based on the decisions of the right under Chapter VII, in particular resolutions 687 and 707 for the year 1991.
"Zebari said that" these decisions are decisions which affect the sovereignty of Iraq because they restrict the possession of ballistic missiles have a range beyond 150 kilometers and also restrict uses of Iraq in some areas of scientific research ", stating that" it is hoped to issue such a decision in mid-February next if the House of Representatives passed the Optional Protocol to the Safeguards Agreement with the International Atomic Energy Agency before the Council for a long time. " The foreign minister said that "Ratification of the Protocol will enable the International Atomic Energy Agency to send a note to the Security Council confirming that Iraq comply fully with its safeguards agreement," noting that "such a warrant is necessary to pass this resolution," expressing at the same time looking forward his ministry to "authenticate the House of Representatives of the Optional Protocol by mid-February because of the importance of such a decision as it represents a major step toward completion of national sovereignty."
It should be noted that the House has finished on the first reading of the draft law on ratification of Iraq the Model Additional Protocol to comprehensive safeguards regime of the International Atomic Energy Agency. For his part, MP from the Kurdistan Alliance Azad Omar Bamarni hoped that the UN resolution passed by the Security Council next month will allow Iraq purchase of sophisticated weapons and long-range missiles to strike a balance in the region. Bamarni said in a statement the "morning": that "the ratification by Parliament on the Additional Protocol is essential to persuade the International Atomic Energy Agency that there are no illegal activities or seeking to acquire nuclear weapons, This helps to confirm the United Mahdp country's commitment not to break the agreements and commitments adhered to by Iraq, paving the way out of Chapter VII.
"He noted that "the issuance of such a resolution from the Security Council will achieve the strategic balance in the region and achieve a deterrent force to Iraq as allowing him to buy long-range missiles and weapons of variety and cancels the previous decision determining the extent of missiles to 150 kilometers, in addition to carrying on scientific research especially in the areas are still off-limits to country, "adding that" this matter will also contribute to achieving stability in the region will not be a cause for escalation, because the purpose of buying such weapons in the future will be for both defensive and not offensive, because Iraq is a believer and is committed to international peace and security."
http://www.alsabaah.com/paper.php?source=akbar&mlf=interpage&sid=96809
The Ministry of Foreign Affairs to step up moves to lift restrictions in the area of disarmament that impede the country's efforts in the field of scientific research and paving the way for out of Chapter VII through the issuance of a resolution by the UN Security Council next month.
He said Foreign Minister Hoshyar Zebari said in an official letter sent to the parliament speaker, got the "morning", a copy of: "The ministry is working with friends to adopt a resolution from the Security Council is to lift all restrictions imposed on Iraq in the field of disarmament based on the decisions of the right under Chapter VII, in particular resolutions 687 and 707 for the year 1991.
"Zebari said that" these decisions are decisions which affect the sovereignty of Iraq because they restrict the possession of ballistic missiles have a range beyond 150 kilometers and also restrict uses of Iraq in some areas of scientific research ", stating that" it is hoped to issue such a decision in mid-February next if the House of Representatives passed the Optional Protocol to the Safeguards Agreement with the International Atomic Energy Agency before the Council for a long time. " The foreign minister said that "Ratification of the Protocol will enable the International Atomic Energy Agency to send a note to the Security Council confirming that Iraq comply fully with its safeguards agreement," noting that "such a warrant is necessary to pass this resolution," expressing at the same time looking forward his ministry to "authenticate the House of Representatives of the Optional Protocol by mid-February because of the importance of such a decision as it represents a major step toward completion of national sovereignty."
It should be noted that the House has finished on the first reading of the draft law on ratification of Iraq the Model Additional Protocol to comprehensive safeguards regime of the International Atomic Energy Agency. For his part, MP from the Kurdistan Alliance Azad Omar Bamarni hoped that the UN resolution passed by the Security Council next month will allow Iraq purchase of sophisticated weapons and long-range missiles to strike a balance in the region. Bamarni said in a statement the "morning": that "the ratification by Parliament on the Additional Protocol is essential to persuade the International Atomic Energy Agency that there are no illegal activities or seeking to acquire nuclear weapons, This helps to confirm the United Mahdp country's commitment not to break the agreements and commitments adhered to by Iraq, paving the way out of Chapter VII.
"He noted that "the issuance of such a resolution from the Security Council will achieve the strategic balance in the region and achieve a deterrent force to Iraq as allowing him to buy long-range missiles and weapons of variety and cancels the previous decision determining the extent of missiles to 150 kilometers, in addition to carrying on scientific research especially in the areas are still off-limits to country, "adding that" this matter will also contribute to achieving stability in the region will not be a cause for escalation, because the purpose of buying such weapons in the future will be for both defensive and not offensive, because Iraq is a believer and is committed to international peace and security."
http://www.alsabaah.com/paper.php?source=akbar&mlf=interpage&sid=96809
WORLD BANK REGIONAL VP FOR MIDDLE EAST & NORTH AFRICA REGION VISITS IRAQ (First Time)
Press Release No:2010/232/MENA
Contacts: In Washington: Najat Yamouri
nyamouri@worldbank.org
202-458-1340
In Beirut: Mona Ziade
+961-1 987 800
mziade@worldbank.org
Washington DC, January 19, 2010 - The World Bank Vice President for the Middle East and North Africa Region, Ms. Shamshad Akhtar, visited Iraq on January 16th to 19th, 2010. The objective of this visit was to advance the strong partnership between Iraq and the World Bank Group.
The Vice President congratulated the Government for launching the Iraqi Poverty Reduction Strategy, on Iraq’s accession to the Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative (EITI) and extended the Bank’s support to the Iraqi Joint Anti-Corruption Council and its work on strengthening anti-corruption, accountability institutions and Anti Money Laundering. "Reducing poverty is the focus of development efforts worldwide, while improved governance is a key to the development process itself" suggested Ms. Akhtar.
Ms. Akhtar engaged the Authorities and Donor Partners on Iraq’s medium-term development priorities and the Bank’s support for enhancing Iraq’s fiscal sustainability and mitigating fiscal and socio-economic vulnerability to oil price shocks. While acknowledging the prevailing political and security challenges, Ms Akhtar stressed the importance of creating an enabling environment for private sector led growth. She underscored this would require promoting an enabling competitive and efficient policy environment, developing legal framework for transparent privatization and public private partnership infrastructure development and promoting effective governance in oil sector, while nurturing non-oil sources of economic growth to generate much needed employment.
Ms Akhtar discussed the status of the Bank’s ongoing portfolio, with a view to accelerating implementation, and increasing the benefits for the Iraqi people. The World Bank program in Iraq consists of 22 projects worth about US$1.0 billion including in the areas of education, health, electricity, water and sanitation, social protection, bank restructuring, and public finance.
During her visit, Ms. Akhtar signed a Grant Agreement to assist the Government in preparing an integrated education sector development strategy for building the human capital needed for Iraq’s future development. Ms. Akhtar held a consultation meeting with other donors, where there was a broad consensus on the need for a partnership to assist Iraq in its economic reconstruction through support to key strategic sectors and capacity building.
Ms. Akhtar met with the Deputy Prime Minister, the Speaker of the Parliament, the Minister of Finance and other senior Government Officials, as well as representatives from Development Partners and the private sector. Ms Akhtar was accompanied by the Director of the Middle East Department Mr. Hedi Larbi, the Country Manager Mr. Jean-Michel Happi and the Vice President Advisor, Charles Kenny.
http://translate.google.com/translate?hl=en&sl=ar&u=http://al-iraqnews.net/new/mhafadat/51266.html&prev=/search%3Fq%3Dnahrain%26hl%3Den%26rlz%3D1T4RNTN_enUS354US354&rurl=translate.google.com
Contacts: In Washington: Najat Yamouri
nyamouri@worldbank.org
202-458-1340
In Beirut: Mona Ziade
+961-1 987 800
mziade@worldbank.org
Washington DC, January 19, 2010 - The World Bank Vice President for the Middle East and North Africa Region, Ms. Shamshad Akhtar, visited Iraq on January 16th to 19th, 2010. The objective of this visit was to advance the strong partnership between Iraq and the World Bank Group.
The Vice President congratulated the Government for launching the Iraqi Poverty Reduction Strategy, on Iraq’s accession to the Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative (EITI) and extended the Bank’s support to the Iraqi Joint Anti-Corruption Council and its work on strengthening anti-corruption, accountability institutions and Anti Money Laundering. "Reducing poverty is the focus of development efforts worldwide, while improved governance is a key to the development process itself" suggested Ms. Akhtar.
Ms. Akhtar engaged the Authorities and Donor Partners on Iraq’s medium-term development priorities and the Bank’s support for enhancing Iraq’s fiscal sustainability and mitigating fiscal and socio-economic vulnerability to oil price shocks. While acknowledging the prevailing political and security challenges, Ms Akhtar stressed the importance of creating an enabling environment for private sector led growth. She underscored this would require promoting an enabling competitive and efficient policy environment, developing legal framework for transparent privatization and public private partnership infrastructure development and promoting effective governance in oil sector, while nurturing non-oil sources of economic growth to generate much needed employment.
Ms Akhtar discussed the status of the Bank’s ongoing portfolio, with a view to accelerating implementation, and increasing the benefits for the Iraqi people. The World Bank program in Iraq consists of 22 projects worth about US$1.0 billion including in the areas of education, health, electricity, water and sanitation, social protection, bank restructuring, and public finance.
During her visit, Ms. Akhtar signed a Grant Agreement to assist the Government in preparing an integrated education sector development strategy for building the human capital needed for Iraq’s future development. Ms. Akhtar held a consultation meeting with other donors, where there was a broad consensus on the need for a partnership to assist Iraq in its economic reconstruction through support to key strategic sectors and capacity building.
Ms. Akhtar met with the Deputy Prime Minister, the Speaker of the Parliament, the Minister of Finance and other senior Government Officials, as well as representatives from Development Partners and the private sector. Ms Akhtar was accompanied by the Director of the Middle East Department Mr. Hedi Larbi, the Country Manager Mr. Jean-Michel Happi and the Vice President Advisor, Charles Kenny.
http://translate.google.com/translate?hl=en&sl=ar&u=http://al-iraqnews.net/new/mhafadat/51266.html&prev=/search%3Fq%3Dnahrain%26hl%3Den%26rlz%3D1T4RNTN_enUS354US354&rurl=translate.google.com
CBI GOVERNOR URGES JAPAN TO PROVIDE LOANS, INVESTMENT
TOKYO, Jan. 20 KYODO
Iraqi Central Bank Governor Sinan Al-Shabibi has emphasized his country's economic recovery and urged Japan to provide loans for enhancing the banking sector and investment in oilfield development to support Iraq's postwar restoration efforts.
To access full stories on Kyodo News English website, it is necessary to subscribe.
http://home.kyodo.co.jp/modules/fstStory/index.php?storyid=481336
Iraqi Central Bank Governor Sinan Al-Shabibi has emphasized his country's economic recovery and urged Japan to provide loans for enhancing the banking sector and investment in oilfield development to support Iraq's postwar restoration efforts.
To access full stories on Kyodo News English website, it is necessary to subscribe.
http://home.kyodo.co.jp/modules/fstStory/index.php?storyid=481336
PHOENIX CHAT - After The Gold Rush 01/19/10 @ 10:15pm EST
[22:15] Phoenix3333: hi
[23:00] Phoenix3333: I talked to medic today on the phone
[23:00] Phoenix3333: the heads up to the banks is real
[23:00] Phoenix3333: and is the very first time this has happened
[23:00] Phoenix3333: from corporate to the lower branches
[23:01] Phoenix3333: it is real and more branches were given notice today
[23:02] Phoenix3333: and I will only go by the bank info not a dealer who sells currency
[23:03] Phoenix3333: what did that letter say Jc?
[23:04] Jc: It was a personal email, Ali to a friend saying there is going
[23:04] Jc: to be some movement in the next 10 days
[23:04] Jc: Again, my first thought, it is coming from a sales man
[23:05] debcaz: phoenix....can you say which banks?
[23:05] Phoenix3333: no
[23:06] frog: hahahhaah. muy expectante
[23:06] Phoenix3333:
[23:06] frog: soorry Deb. ust knew it was coming
[23:06] debcaz: ok thanks...i just thought why you cant say it...which makes sence
[23:07] debcaz: wasnt thinking when i asked you
[23:07] CC: rumor that it was Cit
[23:07] imauofmfan: go for the no and sometimes you get a yes
[23:07] CC: haventr heard of any others
[23:07] debcaz: phoenix...do you feel it might happen this weekend/
[23:07] CC: but you know rumors
[23:07] CC: CB could be citi or chase bk
[23:07] GameBall: PHX, Nod your head if its Citi B...
[23:07] debcaz: since the banks are now being notified
[23:08] CC: well so they say
[23:08] CC: i sure hppe they are
[23:08] GameBall: Tap twice with your right hand if its WF...
23:09] CC: i wander whatever happened to Marge
[23:09] CC: wonder
[23:09] Jc: Phx- do you think we will see the banks remove IR off the ofac list..Or do you think it will be done at the same time of the RV/ RI
[23:10] CC: could be charlie brown
[23:10] CC: chicago bears
[23:11] CC: got quiet.. well good luck folks
[23:14] CC: later folks
[23:14] Phoenix3333: bed time
[23:15] Phoenix3333: see everyone tomorrow!
[23:00] Phoenix3333: I talked to medic today on the phone
[23:00] Phoenix3333: the heads up to the banks is real
[23:00] Phoenix3333: and is the very first time this has happened
[23:00] Phoenix3333: from corporate to the lower branches
[23:01] Phoenix3333: it is real and more branches were given notice today
[23:02] Phoenix3333: and I will only go by the bank info not a dealer who sells currency
[23:03] Phoenix3333: what did that letter say Jc?
[23:04] Jc: It was a personal email, Ali to a friend saying there is going
[23:04] Jc: to be some movement in the next 10 days
[23:04] Jc: Again, my first thought, it is coming from a sales man
[23:05] debcaz: phoenix....can you say which banks?
[23:05] Phoenix3333: no
[23:06] frog: hahahhaah. muy expectante
[23:06] Phoenix3333:
[23:06] frog: soorry Deb. ust knew it was coming
[23:06] debcaz: ok thanks...i just thought why you cant say it...which makes sence
[23:07] debcaz: wasnt thinking when i asked you
[23:07] CC: rumor that it was Cit
[23:07] imauofmfan: go for the no and sometimes you get a yes
[23:07] CC: haventr heard of any others
[23:07] debcaz: phoenix...do you feel it might happen this weekend/
[23:07] CC: but you know rumors
[23:07] CC: CB could be citi or chase bk
[23:07] GameBall: PHX, Nod your head if its Citi B...
[23:07] debcaz: since the banks are now being notified
[23:08] CC: well so they say
[23:08] CC: i sure hppe they are
[23:08] GameBall: Tap twice with your right hand if its WF...
23:09] CC: i wander whatever happened to Marge
[23:09] CC: wonder
[23:09] Jc: Phx- do you think we will see the banks remove IR off the ofac list..Or do you think it will be done at the same time of the RV/ RI
[23:10] CC: could be charlie brown
[23:10] CC: chicago bears
[23:11] CC: got quiet.. well good luck folks
[23:14] CC: later folks
[23:14] Phoenix3333: bed time
[23:15] Phoenix3333: see everyone tomorrow!
SONNY1 POST
6:47 PM [LittleMissGrits] sonny1 ... what is your take on the banks supposedly being on alert for rate change?
6:47 PM [bossman] sonny1 ..how soon is .....soon on r/v??
6:47 PM [sonny1] it defeats the purpose. it wont stop any violence, people still will be ******
6:47 PM [BAMA69] sonny1 hey be careful on your way back might run into a he she* *
6:48 PM [sonny1] LittleMissGrits i was told the same thing by the 5-3 in chicago area
6:48 PM [LittleMissGrits] sonny1 .. the bank people actually told you that?
6:48 PM [SBX] sonny1 you wre told directly by 5/3
6:48 PM [SBX] thats strong if so
6:48 PM [sonny1] icequeen95 thank you, iraq has one of the lowest inflation rates in the world
6:49 PM [sonny1] SBX yes
6:49 PM [financeminister] there sure are a lot of posts lately about banks getting notified (heads up) about dinar
6:49 PM [SBX] 5th 3rd
6:49 PM [dfekigjkh2] 5-3 is fifth/third bank
6:49 PM [sonny1] and two others, on saturday, and they werent b.sing they said it is new territory for them and dont know the proscess
6:49 PM [dfekigjkh2] wierd name for a bank. is it the fifth bank, or the third bank?* *
6:49 PM [financeminister] SBX crap, what did sonny1 hear
6:49 PM [SBX] dfekigjkh2 its 2/3rds better than most banks
6:49 PM [SBX] *
6:49 PM [sonny1] and two others, on saturday, and they werent b.sing they said it is new territory for them and dont know the proscess
6:50 PM [dfekigjkh2] finance, why are you calling SBX crap?* *
6:50 PM [shj121] Thankss sonny,sounds like we are ready to rv
6:50 PM [jtl] I missed it , what was sonny told by the bank?
6:50 PM [waverunn1] *dfe....5th bank...3rd street
6:50 PM [SBX] sonny1 dang
6:50 PM [SBX] well hopeful
6:50 PM [LittleMissGrits] boa1471 u going to cash in with ALI?
6:50 PM [financeminister] sonny1 please repeat
6:50 PM [bossman] sonny1 ..great thanks!!
6:50 PM [sonny1] i call them 2-3 times a month, and have ordered millions of dinar from them, i have became friendly with the manager, and she said its true
6:51 PM [stglenn] sonny1 same bank i use
6:51 PM [antfuzz] sonny1 thank you for sharing
6:51 PM [BAMA69] sonny1 da man* *
6:51 PM [sonny1] same as mailman, no date nor a rate
6:51 PM [LittleMissGrits] sonny1 who tells the banks to be on alert ... the treasury?
6:51 PM [boa1471] nope i will be at 5th3rd bank
6:51 PM [bonecollector] if i knew it was this month for sure............ i would quit tomorrow
6:51 PM [stglenn] well in diff state
6:51 PM [SBX] sonny1 well I will say that IF this is all true then it should be soon....weeks or less
6:51 PM [SBX] no way they would alert someone months ahead of time
6:51 PM [Nance] LittleMissGrits oooo, good question
6:52 PM [Snickers77] what bank was "alerted" ?
6:52 PM [dfekigjkh2] bonec, dont do it!* *
6:52 PM [sonny1] LittleMissGrits they were told thru a e-mail, they wont tell anyone its true, so if you ask them, they will laugh at you
6:52 PM [LazySusan] bonecollector i hope for everyone here that has a job they can quit
6:52 PM [mikey] Snickers77 5th and 3rd
6:52 PM [BAMA69] Im buying the room a drink send the bill to sonny1
6:52 PM [Breeree] *
6:52 PM [jtl] What were they told?
6:52 PM [Snickers77] how do you know that sonny?
6:52 PM [bonecollector] LazySusan me tooo
6:52 PM [LittleMissGrits] sonny1 ... who sent the e-mail though ... or do you know?
6:52 PM [sonny1] so whenyou call, and alot of you will, they will tell you it isnt true, i wont give the actual location6:53 PM [waverunn1] sonny repeat button stuck
6:47 PM [bossman] sonny1 ..how soon is .....soon on r/v??
6:47 PM [sonny1] it defeats the purpose. it wont stop any violence, people still will be ******
6:47 PM [BAMA69] sonny1 hey be careful on your way back might run into a he she* *
6:48 PM [sonny1] LittleMissGrits i was told the same thing by the 5-3 in chicago area
6:48 PM [LittleMissGrits] sonny1 .. the bank people actually told you that?
6:48 PM [SBX] sonny1 you wre told directly by 5/3
6:48 PM [SBX] thats strong if so
6:48 PM [sonny1] icequeen95 thank you, iraq has one of the lowest inflation rates in the world
6:49 PM [sonny1] SBX yes
6:49 PM [financeminister] there sure are a lot of posts lately about banks getting notified (heads up) about dinar
6:49 PM [SBX] 5th 3rd
6:49 PM [dfekigjkh2] 5-3 is fifth/third bank
6:49 PM [sonny1] and two others, on saturday, and they werent b.sing they said it is new territory for them and dont know the proscess
6:49 PM [dfekigjkh2] wierd name for a bank. is it the fifth bank, or the third bank?* *
6:49 PM [financeminister] SBX crap, what did sonny1 hear
6:49 PM [SBX] dfekigjkh2 its 2/3rds better than most banks
6:49 PM [SBX] *
6:49 PM [sonny1] and two others, on saturday, and they werent b.sing they said it is new territory for them and dont know the proscess
6:50 PM [dfekigjkh2] finance, why are you calling SBX crap?* *
6:50 PM [shj121] Thankss sonny,sounds like we are ready to rv
6:50 PM [jtl] I missed it , what was sonny told by the bank?
6:50 PM [waverunn1] *dfe....5th bank...3rd street
6:50 PM [SBX] sonny1 dang
6:50 PM [SBX] well hopeful
6:50 PM [LittleMissGrits] boa1471 u going to cash in with ALI?
6:50 PM [financeminister] sonny1 please repeat
6:50 PM [bossman] sonny1 ..great thanks!!
6:50 PM [sonny1] i call them 2-3 times a month, and have ordered millions of dinar from them, i have became friendly with the manager, and she said its true
6:51 PM [stglenn] sonny1 same bank i use
6:51 PM [antfuzz] sonny1 thank you for sharing
6:51 PM [BAMA69] sonny1 da man* *
6:51 PM [sonny1] same as mailman, no date nor a rate
6:51 PM [LittleMissGrits] sonny1 who tells the banks to be on alert ... the treasury?
6:51 PM [boa1471] nope i will be at 5th3rd bank
6:51 PM [bonecollector] if i knew it was this month for sure............ i would quit tomorrow
6:51 PM [stglenn] well in diff state
6:51 PM [SBX] sonny1 well I will say that IF this is all true then it should be soon....weeks or less
6:51 PM [SBX] no way they would alert someone months ahead of time
6:51 PM [Nance] LittleMissGrits oooo, good question
6:52 PM [Snickers77] what bank was "alerted" ?
6:52 PM [dfekigjkh2] bonec, dont do it!* *
6:52 PM [sonny1] LittleMissGrits they were told thru a e-mail, they wont tell anyone its true, so if you ask them, they will laugh at you
6:52 PM [LazySusan] bonecollector i hope for everyone here that has a job they can quit
6:52 PM [mikey] Snickers77 5th and 3rd
6:52 PM [BAMA69] Im buying the room a drink send the bill to sonny1
6:52 PM [Breeree] *
6:52 PM [jtl] What were they told?
6:52 PM [Snickers77] how do you know that sonny?
6:52 PM [bonecollector] LazySusan me tooo
6:52 PM [LittleMissGrits] sonny1 ... who sent the e-mail though ... or do you know?
6:52 PM [sonny1] so whenyou call, and alot of you will, they will tell you it isnt true, i wont give the actual location6:53 PM [waverunn1] sonny repeat button stuck
TDURDEN CHAT - 1/20/10 @ 10:57am CST
10:57 AM [tdurden] ok...
10:57 AM [tdurden] their is quite a bit going on in iraq
10:58 AM [tdurden] and all of it is leading to the RV
10:58 AM [tdurden] so as many of you know I look at things a little differently than everyone else because thats just what ive been taught to do...following the money
10:59 AM [tdurden] and in that, I also try to figure out what we know as fact to justify what we are trying to figure out intel wise
10:59 AM [tdurden] so as we've talked about before their was a chain of events that started in december with the TR deals and CMS deals
11:00 AM [tdurden] we saw the ISX go down for 2 weeks, which we were thinking was to adjust for new values
11:00 AM [tdurden] they decided to go back online on the 4th and not the 3rd which would have been a normal business day for them
11:00 AM [tdurden] then we find out that the 3rd was an accounting holiday for everyone.
11:00 AM [tdurden] funny, the ISX seem to know it was coming
11:01 AM [tdurden] we also see in the papers that the Oil contracts were getting signed from the 20-30th
11:02 AM [tdurden] So on thursday the 31st we saw something strange
11:02 AM [tdurden] we saw what seemed to be a change in GCC currencies. and i know there has been debate over whether it was just a spread at the bank or not
11:03 AM [tdurden] but we checked UAE, Kuwait and Jordans buy sell values at Warka and they are the same as the new values at Wells and BOA. so I believe that argument is out the window
11:03 AM [tdurden] Now Breit and I have discussed many times what Iraq wants in rate and it has always been 3 +
11:04 AM [tdurden] so Kuwait is now 4600/1 dinar and it was 4000/1 which is about 3.90
11:05 AM [tdurden] Wells and BOA have Kuwait around 3.90 to buy, jordan around 1.65 and UAE about .30. that is about a 10-12% increase
11:05 AM [tdurden] from before
11:05 AM [tdurden] Forex does not reflect this yet because IMO they are waiting for the GCC to start the union on the 23rd.
11:06 AM [tdurden] Now going back to what Iraq wants....and please remember I by no means no what the rate is. Just watching things unfold and trying to construct an educated guess
11:06 AM [tdurden] anyway, we have always thought Iraq wanted 3+ and we heard last summer they wanted 3.41
11:07 AM [tdurden] we discussed last fall that this would work because they had hypothetically agreed with kuwait to be a couple cents lower
11:08 AM [tdurden] So back to the timeline
11:08 AM [tdurden] oil contracts are signed by dec 30th
11:08 AM [tdurden] the 3rd was an accounting holiday
11:08 AM [tdurden] the 4th banks opened late and ISX had tech problems
11:09 AM [mailman17] so they say
11:09 AM [tdurden] right mailman
11:10 AM [tdurden] I believe they were ready to go on the 4th but the other countries changing their rates screwed them up
11:11 AM [tdurden] So in the past 2 weeks we have seen a lot of strange things
11:11 AM [pyramid] so you don't think they knew about the other countries changing their rates until it happened?
11:11 AM [tdurden] im not sure, i dont think they thought kuwait would go that high
11:11 AM [tdurden] this is all speculation and ill explain why
11:12 AM [tdurden] so anyway, ive been watching the ISX and everyday the amount of listed stocks changes. only 1/2 are traded and the article came out explaining stock prices and changes in value
11:13 AM [tdurden] i have a hard time understanding why they would give an english version without that information and an arabic version with the info
11:13 AM [tdurden] arent they looking for outside investment
11:13 AM [tdurden] but then with that we saw that a share of bank of sumer is 880 fils
11:13 AM [tdurden] have we seen or heard of anyone carrying fils?
11:14 AM [fritzidinar] no
11:14 AM [tdurden] thats not even including lower denoms of dinars
11:14 AM [tdurden] so how does that make sense
11:14 AM [tdurden] then we see that oil contracts were getting amended and signed
11:14 AM [tdurden] but werent they just signed 3 weeks ago
11:14 AM [mailman17] seems to me the smalls are on their way out to get fresh air
11:15 AM [tdurden] what has to be amended only 3 weeks after it was signed
11:15 AM [tdurden] and why would it need to get amended
11:15 AM [fritzidinar] rate?
11:15 AM [tdurden] thats my thought
11:15 AM [tdurden] cause they arent negotiating a better deal after they just signed them
11:15 AM [mailman17] been my line of thinking also td...kudos
11:16 AM [tdurden] because what is being amended has been kept a secret
11:16 AM [tdurden] now throw in the budget getting delayed and amended over and over again
11:16 AM [tdurden] and asking for more money
11:17 AM [tdurden] that could be looked at in 2 ways...a higher rv or the difference in the price of oil.
11:17 AM [tdurden] either way i dont care becuase i believe all this stuff going on is telling us what they are doing
11:17 AM [mailman17] tdurden i would say rv...cause the difference in oil price doesnt justify a 40% increase in the budget
11:18 AM [mailman17] jmo
11:18 AM [tdurden] there budget is based on 60-62 a barrel. oil is at 78. its about 30% but either way they can plan for the difference
11:18 AM [tdurden] anyway, here are things to watch.
11:19 AM [tdurden] Biden and chris hill are in iraq
11:19 AM [tdurden] barzani and hashemi are in the US
11:19 AM [tdurden] GCC goes live with the currency on the 23rd
11:19 AM [tdurden] Budget supposidly tomorrow
11:19 AM [tdurden] Final oil contract amended on the 24th
11:19 AM [mailman17] true, but once they lock in that budget and if oil were to dip for some reason, they would be screwed seeing as production is stagnated at 1.9mbd
11:20 AM [tdurden] yeah...see i believe they are getting everything done so they can rv. get out of chapter 7. watch production explode as a result of the contracts and bam. they are one of the richest countries in the world
11:20 AM [mailman17] agreed
11:20 AM [tdurden] all the while they have had trillions in debt erased and now are on speaking terms with kuwait
11:21 AM [tdurden] kuwait said this weekend they dont care about the debt
11:21 AM [tdurden] wasnt that the chapter 7 sticking point
11:21 AM [mailman17] well thought out my friend...me likey
11:21 AM [tdurden] I think Kuwait is feeling the pressure of Iran and wants Iraq to be strong enough to be a buffer if things go down
11:22 AM [tdurden] hence not needing the money but want imporved security
11:22 AM [mailman17] also agree
11:23 AM [tdurden] Now i still dont know whats going on in regards to timing of getting things done before elections
11:23 AM [tdurden] and the IMF loan
11:23 AM [tdurden] there are other people here that know a lot more about that than me
11:24 AM [tdurden] but when watching whats going on with the money. It has been a very interesting past month and a half
11:24 AM [tdurden] now a couple other things to ponder
11:24 AM [tdurden] the article that came out the other day about the CBI wanting to raise the value
11:24 AM [tdurden] that is a new article because it mentions 200 billion dinar auctions...which are fairly new...as well as electronic trading
11:25 AM [tdurden] and also we have watched Bank of Baghdad put on there site about a week or two ago that they can communicate with banks all over the world and do transfers....this is new
11:26 AM [tdurden] with ATM's going live, this also tells us they can communicate electronically
11:26 AM [tdurden] these I believe were one of the hang ups
11:26 AM [tdurden] that didnt make sense
11:26 AM [tdurden] I believe not having the systems in place to communicate electronically was a hang up
11:26 AM [tdurden] but it seems they are live now
11:27 AM [tdurden] but they still have to fix the other contractual issues that have arisen over the past 2 weeks.
11:27 AM [tdurden] So with all that said. I think we really are there
11:28 AM [tdurden] I hope that all makes sense. feel free to ask questions or challenge my thought process if something doesnt make sense
10:57 AM [tdurden] their is quite a bit going on in iraq
10:58 AM [tdurden] and all of it is leading to the RV
10:58 AM [tdurden] so as many of you know I look at things a little differently than everyone else because thats just what ive been taught to do...following the money
10:59 AM [tdurden] and in that, I also try to figure out what we know as fact to justify what we are trying to figure out intel wise
10:59 AM [tdurden] so as we've talked about before their was a chain of events that started in december with the TR deals and CMS deals
11:00 AM [tdurden] we saw the ISX go down for 2 weeks, which we were thinking was to adjust for new values
11:00 AM [tdurden] they decided to go back online on the 4th and not the 3rd which would have been a normal business day for them
11:00 AM [tdurden] then we find out that the 3rd was an accounting holiday for everyone.
11:00 AM [tdurden] funny, the ISX seem to know it was coming
11:01 AM [tdurden] we also see in the papers that the Oil contracts were getting signed from the 20-30th
11:02 AM [tdurden] So on thursday the 31st we saw something strange
11:02 AM [tdurden] we saw what seemed to be a change in GCC currencies. and i know there has been debate over whether it was just a spread at the bank or not
11:03 AM [tdurden] but we checked UAE, Kuwait and Jordans buy sell values at Warka and they are the same as the new values at Wells and BOA. so I believe that argument is out the window
11:03 AM [tdurden] Now Breit and I have discussed many times what Iraq wants in rate and it has always been 3 +
11:04 AM [tdurden] so Kuwait is now 4600/1 dinar and it was 4000/1 which is about 3.90
11:05 AM [tdurden] Wells and BOA have Kuwait around 3.90 to buy, jordan around 1.65 and UAE about .30. that is about a 10-12% increase
11:05 AM [tdurden] from before
11:05 AM [tdurden] Forex does not reflect this yet because IMO they are waiting for the GCC to start the union on the 23rd.
11:06 AM [tdurden] Now going back to what Iraq wants....and please remember I by no means no what the rate is. Just watching things unfold and trying to construct an educated guess
11:06 AM [tdurden] anyway, we have always thought Iraq wanted 3+ and we heard last summer they wanted 3.41
11:07 AM [tdurden] we discussed last fall that this would work because they had hypothetically agreed with kuwait to be a couple cents lower
11:08 AM [tdurden] So back to the timeline
11:08 AM [tdurden] oil contracts are signed by dec 30th
11:08 AM [tdurden] the 3rd was an accounting holiday
11:08 AM [tdurden] the 4th banks opened late and ISX had tech problems
11:09 AM [mailman17] so they say
11:09 AM [tdurden] right mailman
11:10 AM [tdurden] I believe they were ready to go on the 4th but the other countries changing their rates screwed them up
11:11 AM [tdurden] So in the past 2 weeks we have seen a lot of strange things
11:11 AM [pyramid] so you don't think they knew about the other countries changing their rates until it happened?
11:11 AM [tdurden] im not sure, i dont think they thought kuwait would go that high
11:11 AM [tdurden] this is all speculation and ill explain why
11:12 AM [tdurden] so anyway, ive been watching the ISX and everyday the amount of listed stocks changes. only 1/2 are traded and the article came out explaining stock prices and changes in value
11:13 AM [tdurden] i have a hard time understanding why they would give an english version without that information and an arabic version with the info
11:13 AM [tdurden] arent they looking for outside investment
11:13 AM [tdurden] but then with that we saw that a share of bank of sumer is 880 fils
11:13 AM [tdurden] have we seen or heard of anyone carrying fils?
11:14 AM [fritzidinar] no
11:14 AM [tdurden] thats not even including lower denoms of dinars
11:14 AM [tdurden] so how does that make sense
11:14 AM [tdurden] then we see that oil contracts were getting amended and signed
11:14 AM [tdurden] but werent they just signed 3 weeks ago
11:14 AM [mailman17] seems to me the smalls are on their way out to get fresh air
11:15 AM [tdurden] what has to be amended only 3 weeks after it was signed
11:15 AM [tdurden] and why would it need to get amended
11:15 AM [fritzidinar] rate?
11:15 AM [tdurden] thats my thought
11:15 AM [tdurden] cause they arent negotiating a better deal after they just signed them
11:15 AM [mailman17] been my line of thinking also td...kudos
11:16 AM [tdurden] because what is being amended has been kept a secret
11:16 AM [tdurden] now throw in the budget getting delayed and amended over and over again
11:16 AM [tdurden] and asking for more money
11:17 AM [tdurden] that could be looked at in 2 ways...a higher rv or the difference in the price of oil.
11:17 AM [tdurden] either way i dont care becuase i believe all this stuff going on is telling us what they are doing
11:17 AM [mailman17] tdurden i would say rv...cause the difference in oil price doesnt justify a 40% increase in the budget
11:18 AM [mailman17] jmo
11:18 AM [tdurden] there budget is based on 60-62 a barrel. oil is at 78. its about 30% but either way they can plan for the difference
11:18 AM [tdurden] anyway, here are things to watch.
11:19 AM [tdurden] Biden and chris hill are in iraq
11:19 AM [tdurden] barzani and hashemi are in the US
11:19 AM [tdurden] GCC goes live with the currency on the 23rd
11:19 AM [tdurden] Budget supposidly tomorrow
11:19 AM [tdurden] Final oil contract amended on the 24th
11:19 AM [mailman17] true, but once they lock in that budget and if oil were to dip for some reason, they would be screwed seeing as production is stagnated at 1.9mbd
11:20 AM [tdurden] yeah...see i believe they are getting everything done so they can rv. get out of chapter 7. watch production explode as a result of the contracts and bam. they are one of the richest countries in the world
11:20 AM [mailman17] agreed
11:20 AM [tdurden] all the while they have had trillions in debt erased and now are on speaking terms with kuwait
11:21 AM [tdurden] kuwait said this weekend they dont care about the debt
11:21 AM [tdurden] wasnt that the chapter 7 sticking point
11:21 AM [mailman17] well thought out my friend...me likey
11:21 AM [tdurden] I think Kuwait is feeling the pressure of Iran and wants Iraq to be strong enough to be a buffer if things go down
11:22 AM [tdurden] hence not needing the money but want imporved security
11:22 AM [mailman17] also agree
11:23 AM [tdurden] Now i still dont know whats going on in regards to timing of getting things done before elections
11:23 AM [tdurden] and the IMF loan
11:23 AM [tdurden] there are other people here that know a lot more about that than me
11:24 AM [tdurden] but when watching whats going on with the money. It has been a very interesting past month and a half
11:24 AM [tdurden] now a couple other things to ponder
11:24 AM [tdurden] the article that came out the other day about the CBI wanting to raise the value
11:24 AM [tdurden] that is a new article because it mentions 200 billion dinar auctions...which are fairly new...as well as electronic trading
11:25 AM [tdurden] and also we have watched Bank of Baghdad put on there site about a week or two ago that they can communicate with banks all over the world and do transfers....this is new
11:26 AM [tdurden] with ATM's going live, this also tells us they can communicate electronically
11:26 AM [tdurden] these I believe were one of the hang ups
11:26 AM [tdurden] that didnt make sense
11:26 AM [tdurden] I believe not having the systems in place to communicate electronically was a hang up
11:26 AM [tdurden] but it seems they are live now
11:27 AM [tdurden] but they still have to fix the other contractual issues that have arisen over the past 2 weeks.
11:27 AM [tdurden] So with all that said. I think we really are there
11:28 AM [tdurden] I hope that all makes sense. feel free to ask questions or challenge my thought process if something doesnt make sense
IRAQ: OFAC SANCTION INFORMATION
http://treas.gov/offices/enforcement/ofac/programs/iraq/iraq.pdf
Excerpt from the documents...
FINANCIAL TRANSACTIONS - All financial transactions with Iraq are allowed except for those involving individuals and entities appearing on OFAC's SDN list. This includes the opening of correspondent accounts for Iraqi financial institutions.
Excerpt from the documents...
FINANCIAL TRANSACTIONS - All financial transactions with Iraq are allowed except for those involving individuals and entities appearing on OFAC's SDN list. This includes the opening of correspondent accounts for Iraqi financial institutions.
GCC MONETARY AUTHORITY WILL OFFICIALLY LAUNCH THEIR MONETARY UNION
January 23rd - GCC Monetary Authority Will Officially Launch Their Monetary Union
"The monetary union will be enforced on January 23, a month after the fourth ratification document was deposited by the members with the GCC Secretariat," Qaoud told the Arabic-language paper Al Riyadh.
http://articlesofinterest-kelley.blo...teresting.html
"The monetary union will be enforced on January 23, a month after the fourth ratification document was deposited by the members with the GCC Secretariat," Qaoud told the Arabic-language paper Al Riyadh.
http://articlesofinterest-kelley.blo...teresting.html
IRAQ DOES NOT NEED IMF FOR NOW
Wednesday, January 20th 2010 9:20 AM
Sulaimaniyah, Jan.20 (AKnews) – Iraq is not necessarily to borrow money from International Monetary Fund but if the state budget will dramatically step down, we will borrow financial backups from the IMF," financial procurator of the Iraqi finance ministry said, on Wednesday.
"There are some rumors that the central government of Iraqi will borrow money from the international funds but it might be the bogus news just to receive money easily," financial procurator, Fazel Nabi told the Independent National News Agency of Kurdistan (AKnews).
He further noted" Iraq is still driving in the dramatic financial rescission process, but it is not meaning that the state can not battle against budget decreasing due to the rate one barrel of oil is determined by $60 ,but the price is increasing to $ 80 per barrel right now , thus we can control the obstacles very easily.
"We will ask to the international funds to support us, if we can not control the financial recessions at that time."
"The state general budget does not need international funds to solve its financial problem but it can require funds and backups in necessity moment at any time,".
The Iraqi budget is estimated to more than 84 trillion and 600 milliard ID for the year 2010.
ba gs AKnews
http://www.aknews.com/en/aknews/2/105374/
Sulaimaniyah, Jan.20 (AKnews) – Iraq is not necessarily to borrow money from International Monetary Fund but if the state budget will dramatically step down, we will borrow financial backups from the IMF," financial procurator of the Iraqi finance ministry said, on Wednesday.
"There are some rumors that the central government of Iraqi will borrow money from the international funds but it might be the bogus news just to receive money easily," financial procurator, Fazel Nabi told the Independent National News Agency of Kurdistan (AKnews).
He further noted" Iraq is still driving in the dramatic financial rescission process, but it is not meaning that the state can not battle against budget decreasing due to the rate one barrel of oil is determined by $60 ,but the price is increasing to $ 80 per barrel right now , thus we can control the obstacles very easily.
"We will ask to the international funds to support us, if we can not control the financial recessions at that time."
"The state general budget does not need international funds to solve its financial problem but it can require funds and backups in necessity moment at any time,".
The Iraqi budget is estimated to more than 84 trillion and 600 milliard ID for the year 2010.
ba gs AKnews
http://www.aknews.com/en/aknews/2/105374/
DFEKIGJKH2 POST - Dinar Vets 1/20/10 @ 12:22am EST
IMF loan repayment as cause for an RV DEBUNKED?
Rumor (abbreviated):
Iraq must have a tradable currency before they can BEGIN repaying an alleged new loan from the IMF.
1) No proof of such a loan being issued has been found. Many sites mention the DISCUSSION of a loan, say the IMF is confident in the loan, but no document actually proves such a loan was granted or more importantly, lists special terms or methods of repayment.
2) Iraq has previously paid off a debt of almost $470 million to the IMF, without having a tradable currency.
Question:
Why would Iraq now have to RV to pay off an undocumented debt? Where is the proof of such a loan, where are the terms that say Iraq must pay in Dinars?
URL: http://www.imf.org/external/np/sec/pr/2007/pr07288.htm
Doc: Iraq Completes Early Repayment of Entire Outstanding Obligations to the IMF - Press Release No. 07/288
On December 12, 2007 - Iraq completed the early repayment of its entire outstanding obligations to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) amounting to SDR 297.1 million (about US$470.5 million). The outstanding obligations of Iraq had been contracted under the Emergency Post-Conflict Assistance that was approved by the Executive Board on September 29, 2004 (see Press Release No 04/206).
The repayment was made in advance of Iraq's request for a new Stand-By Arrangement, which is scheduled for discussion at the IMF's Executive Board on December 19, 2007. Under the original schedule, the final repayment of Iraq's outstanding obligations to the IMF would have taken place in 2009.
IMF Managing Director Dominique Strauss-Kahn commended the Iraqi authorities for the implementation of their macroeconomic policies and reforms over the last several years, noting that "Iraq's ability to repay the IMF ahead of schedule reflects its strong international reserve position against a background of high oil prices."
Rumor (abbreviated):
Iraq must have a tradable currency before they can BEGIN repaying an alleged new loan from the IMF.
1) No proof of such a loan being issued has been found. Many sites mention the DISCUSSION of a loan, say the IMF is confident in the loan, but no document actually proves such a loan was granted or more importantly, lists special terms or methods of repayment.
2) Iraq has previously paid off a debt of almost $470 million to the IMF, without having a tradable currency.
Question:
Why would Iraq now have to RV to pay off an undocumented debt? Where is the proof of such a loan, where are the terms that say Iraq must pay in Dinars?
URL: http://www.imf.org/external/np/sec/pr/2007/pr07288.htm
Doc: Iraq Completes Early Repayment of Entire Outstanding Obligations to the IMF - Press Release No. 07/288
On December 12, 2007 - Iraq completed the early repayment of its entire outstanding obligations to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) amounting to SDR 297.1 million (about US$470.5 million). The outstanding obligations of Iraq had been contracted under the Emergency Post-Conflict Assistance that was approved by the Executive Board on September 29, 2004 (see Press Release No 04/206).
The repayment was made in advance of Iraq's request for a new Stand-By Arrangement, which is scheduled for discussion at the IMF's Executive Board on December 19, 2007. Under the original schedule, the final repayment of Iraq's outstanding obligations to the IMF would have taken place in 2009.
IMF Managing Director Dominique Strauss-Kahn commended the Iraqi authorities for the implementation of their macroeconomic policies and reforms over the last several years, noting that "Iraq's ability to repay the IMF ahead of schedule reflects its strong international reserve position against a background of high oil prices."
KURDS AND SUPREME COUNCIL RE-AFFIRM ALLIANCE BEFORE 2010 IRAQI ELECTIONS
On January 12, 2010 - the head of the Supreme Islamic Iraqi Council (SIIC) and the Iraqi National Alliance Ammar al-Hakim traveled to Kurdistan. Hakim first went to Irbil where he met with the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) President Massoud Barzani and KRG Prime Minister Barham Salah. The next day Hakim traveled to Sulaymaniya where he met with Iraqi President and Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK) chief Jalal Talabani. These talks coincided with a conference between the political bureaus of Barzani’s Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) and PUK in Irbil. The purpose of Hakim’s visit was to solidify the alliance between the SIIC, KDP, and PUK before the March 2010 elections.
The result of the trip was an announcement by Hakim of plans to form a national coalition to rule the country after the voting this year. Hakim said that no party could run Iraq with just 51% of the seats in parliament, and that a broad based collection of lists would be needed instead. This is an attempt to replay 2005 and 2006 when the Shiite United Iraqi Alliance led by the SIIC joined with the KDP-PUK’s Kurdish Alliance to form the backbone of both Prime Minister Ibrahim al-Jaafari and Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki’s governments.
The SIIC and Kurds have had a long-standing relationship since the 1980s. That was when all three parties fought on the Iranian side in the Iran-Iraq War. After the fall of Saddam they took leadership positions in the U.S. created Iraqi Governing Council in 2003, and then the interim Iraqi government of Prime Minister Ilyad Allawi in 2004. In the January and December 2005 national balloting, the SIIC led United Iraqi Alliance and the Kurdish Alliance walked away with the lions share of the votes. In parliament they continued to work together to push through the 2005 constitution that included policies they advocated such as federalism and an article on Kirkuk, and a federal regions law in October 2006. They also worked actively to defeat or hold up legislation they were against like a new oil law, the provincial powers law, and the 2009 and 2010 provincial election laws.
Heading into the 2010 vote the two sides are hoping to maintain their relationship. Besides their advocacy for federalism, opposition to Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki also unites them. Any broad coalition they might attempt to form after the elections will likely be aimed at keeping Maliki out of a second term, and naming one of their own as the new prime minister of Iraq.
http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/
SOURCES
AK News, “MP: Ammar al-Hakim’s visit Kurdistan, confers with President Barzani,” 1/13/10
Associated Press, “A Look at Iraq’s New Interim Government,” 6/1/04
Aswat al-Iraq, “Barzani, Ammar al-Hakim discuss forming ‘wide national bloc’ in Iraq,” 1/12/10
- “Al-Hakim calls to resort to constitution to tackle problems between Arbil, Baghdad,” 1/13/10
- “Political bureaus of KDP, PUK meet in Arbil,” 1/13/10
- “President Talabani to meet SIIC chief in Sulaimaniya,” 1/13/10
- “PUK, KDP agree to form national bloc – al-Hakim,” 1/14/10
BBC, “Guide to Iraqi political parties,” 1/20/06
Burns, John and Glanz, James, “Iraqi Shiites Win, but Margin Is less Than Projection,” New York Times, 2/14/05
International Crisis Group, “Iraq After The Surge II: The Need for a New Political Strategy,” 4/30/88
- “Shiite Politics In Iraq: The Role Of The Supreme Council,” 11/15/07
Tyler, Patrick, “Iraq pieces together its first postwar governing council,” San Francisco Chronicle, 7/13/03
The result of the trip was an announcement by Hakim of plans to form a national coalition to rule the country after the voting this year. Hakim said that no party could run Iraq with just 51% of the seats in parliament, and that a broad based collection of lists would be needed instead. This is an attempt to replay 2005 and 2006 when the Shiite United Iraqi Alliance led by the SIIC joined with the KDP-PUK’s Kurdish Alliance to form the backbone of both Prime Minister Ibrahim al-Jaafari and Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki’s governments.
The SIIC and Kurds have had a long-standing relationship since the 1980s. That was when all three parties fought on the Iranian side in the Iran-Iraq War. After the fall of Saddam they took leadership positions in the U.S. created Iraqi Governing Council in 2003, and then the interim Iraqi government of Prime Minister Ilyad Allawi in 2004. In the January and December 2005 national balloting, the SIIC led United Iraqi Alliance and the Kurdish Alliance walked away with the lions share of the votes. In parliament they continued to work together to push through the 2005 constitution that included policies they advocated such as federalism and an article on Kirkuk, and a federal regions law in October 2006. They also worked actively to defeat or hold up legislation they were against like a new oil law, the provincial powers law, and the 2009 and 2010 provincial election laws.
Heading into the 2010 vote the two sides are hoping to maintain their relationship. Besides their advocacy for federalism, opposition to Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki also unites them. Any broad coalition they might attempt to form after the elections will likely be aimed at keeping Maliki out of a second term, and naming one of their own as the new prime minister of Iraq.
http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/
SOURCES
AK News, “MP: Ammar al-Hakim’s visit Kurdistan, confers with President Barzani,” 1/13/10
Associated Press, “A Look at Iraq’s New Interim Government,” 6/1/04
Aswat al-Iraq, “Barzani, Ammar al-Hakim discuss forming ‘wide national bloc’ in Iraq,” 1/12/10
- “Al-Hakim calls to resort to constitution to tackle problems between Arbil, Baghdad,” 1/13/10
- “Political bureaus of KDP, PUK meet in Arbil,” 1/13/10
- “President Talabani to meet SIIC chief in Sulaimaniya,” 1/13/10
- “PUK, KDP agree to form national bloc – al-Hakim,” 1/14/10
BBC, “Guide to Iraqi political parties,” 1/20/06
Burns, John and Glanz, James, “Iraqi Shiites Win, but Margin Is less Than Projection,” New York Times, 2/14/05
International Crisis Group, “Iraq After The Surge II: The Need for a New Political Strategy,” 4/30/88
- “Shiite Politics In Iraq: The Role Of The Supreme Council,” 11/15/07
Tyler, Patrick, “Iraq pieces together its first postwar governing council,” San Francisco Chronicle, 7/13/03
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