XXXXXXX CHAT - 1/9/10 @ 4:30AM EST

COMMENT:
OK HERE IS THINGS IN A NUTSHELL... ALL I KNOW IS THAT WE ARE WAITING FOR SOMETHING IMMINENT TO HAPPEN. I AM NERVOUS

QUESTION:
Nervous in a good way?

ANSWER/COMMENTS:
YES AND NO... BECAUSE I AM EXCITED VERY MUCH ABOUT ALL THE INFORMATION THAT WAS POSTED IN THE GAZETTE. FIRST THAT IF THE BUDGET IS A NO GO, THEN THEY WILL GO TO AN EXCHANGE RATE MECHANISM TO COVER THE LACK OF A BUDGET, AND THEY STATE WITHIN THE WEEK. NOW WHEN WAS THAT POSTED? TUES OR WED. SO WE ARE ON THE CLOCK. NOW ALSO THE FACT THAT THEY ALSO LET OUT THERE IS NOT GOING TO BE A BUDGET UNTIL NEXT MONTH. I TOLD YOU ALL THAT IT IS IMMINENT. NOW IF WE PAY ATTENTION TO FIRST BIT OF INFO, THEN WE ARE FIRST LOOKING FOR THE RV TONIGHT, AND THEN ON.

I AM TAKING SONNY'S INFO TO ME SERIOUSLY, AND I AM TAKING MY INFO SERIOUSLY, AND THE INFO THAT HAS BEEN RELEASED TO THE PUBLIC. I DO NOT WANT AN ANSWER TO THIS... DO NOT MAKE ONE RESPONSE... DO NOT IM ANYONE ABOUT IT. DO NOT YELL OUT A RESPONSE... RIDDLE ME THIS... A WEE LEPRECHAUN GUARDS HIS POT O GOLD AT THE BASE OF THE... ? THANK YOU! THAT IS MY BEDTIME STORY.

SONNY'S GOOD FRIEND IS A RETIRED PROFESSOR OF ECONOMICS WITH A PHD IN MIDDLE EASTERN REGION
HE HAS MANY FRIENDS IN DUBAI WHO ARE ALSO ECONOMISTS. THEY ARE ALL INVESTED TOGETHER. THEY WERE TOLD TO LOOK THIS WEEKEND FOR THE RV.

I AM JUST GOING ON THE ARTICLE IN THE GAZETTE. NOW I SEE THAT THEY ARE TRYING TOMORROW OR MONDAY TO PASS THE BUDGET, BUT WILL THEY HAVE A QUORUM? WHO KNOWS? ONLY 30 MEMBERS OF PARLIAMENT OUT OF 275 HAVE NOT VIOLATED THE CONSTITUTION BY MISSING 10 OR MORE VOTING SESSIONS.

IT IS STILL THE SAME I BELIEVE. BETWEEN NOW AND THE LAST WEEK OF JANUARY. I DON'T THINK IT CAN REACH FEBRUARY. THIS DATE THAT POPS UP, OF THE NEW EXCHANGE RATE FOR 2010 THAT THEY ARE COMPLAINING IS NOT USED FOR THE BUDGET. IT IS NOT THE PAYMENT THAT TRIGGERS THE RV. IT IS THE DISTRIBUTION OF THE LOAN (DFI Funds from IMF). THERE IS A 30 DAY MANDATE FOR IMF MEMBERS THAT STATES THAT STIPS HAVE TO BE IN PLACE 30 DAYS PRIOR, AND DO YOU THINK THE IMF TRUSTS A HANDSHAKE BY ANYONE IN THE GOI?

REMEMBER SHABIBI WORKED THIS IMF LOAN OUT, AND SHABIBI WAS WITH THE IMF, WB AND THE UN
AS THEIR CHIEF ECONOMIST UNTIL HE RETIRED, AND THEN CAME TO IRAQ. HE HADN'T LIVED IN IRAQ I BELIEVE SINCE THE EARLY 60'S.

QUESTION:
Am I right that he now has the RV in his hands?

ANSWER:
YES... NO POLITICIAN WANTED THE RESPONSIBILITY. IF IT FAILS, THEN THEY CAN BLAME SHABIBI. IF IT IS A SUCCESS, THEN THEY ALL CAN JUMP ON THE BANDWAGON.

QUESTION:
How does it fail?

ANSWER/COMMENTS:
BY RV'ING TOO HIGH... MISHANDLING THE ECONOMY, AS THEY ARE NOW. TOO MUCH LIQUIDITY CAN CAUSE HYPERINFLATION. SO FAR THE PARLIAMENT HAS NOT DONE ANYTHING TO HELP THE IRAQI PEOPLE. I DON'T EXPECT THEM TO UNLESS IT IMPROVES THEIR BANK ACCOUNTS. WHAT IS GOING ON RIGHT NOW IS A FARCE. ALL OF A SUDDEN THEY ARE PASSING BILLS SAYING THEY WANT TO HELP THE PEOPLE. THIS MAKES U.S. POLITICS LOOK LIKE WE ARE SQUEAKY CLEAN, ALL CLAIMING THAT OUTSIDE MONEY IS CONTROLLING THE OUTCOME. HECK THEY HAVEN'T EVEN STARTED POLITICKING YET. HOW ARE OUTSIDE SOURCES TURNING THE TIDE ALREADY? SEE THEY ARE UNDERESTIMATING THE COMMON SENSE OF THE IRAQI. THE LAST STREET POLL SHOWED HOW THE IRAQI ON THE STREET FEEL ABOUT PARLIAMENT, THAT THEY MADE SURE THEY WERE TAKEN CARE OF BY PASSING LEGISLATION FOR 5 1/2 YRS. THEY ONLY WORKED 3 DAYS A WEEK. THEN TALIBANI SAID 4 DAYS, AND IF YOU DON'T SHOW, YOU DON'T GET PAID. BUT THEY DON'T ENFORCE THE LAWS AGAINST THE UPPER CLASS.

QUESTION:
Can we then say that Iraqi politics in the future looks bleak?

ANSWER/COMMENTS:
NO I DON'T THINK IT LOOKS BLEAK. THIS IS JUST THE KICKING AND SCREAMING BY THOSE WHO KNOW THEIR JOBS ARE ENDING. THE U.S. WILL NOT ALLOW CORRUPT ELECTIONS. THIS IS NOT IRAN. THE U.S. IS WATCHING VERY INTENTLY, AND WILL MAKE SURE ALONG WITH THE U.N. THAT ALL IS FAIR. REMOVING HUSSEIN DESTABILIZED THE REGION. NOW WE HAVE TO PUT THAT BACK IN PLACE. IF YOU READ THE ARTICLES FROM YESTERDAY, I SAID THAT THE US WAS NEGOTIATING THE SECURITY FILES AND THE ECONOMIC FILES IN TWO MAJOR ARTICLES WE MENTIONED IN THE ASSISTANCE OF INTELLIGENCE AND TRAINING FOR SECURITY AND ALSO THE ECONOMIC FILES UNDER NEW MONIES AND THE USA. THAT IS WHY THE BUDGET WAS HELD UP.

QUESTION:
So, if they are afraid to pull the RV and come out too high, doesn't the Exchange Rate Mechanism help with that?

ANSWER/COMMENTS:
YES IT DOES. THERE ARE TWO TYPES OF ERM'S (Exchange Rate Mechanism): ERM I AND ERM II. ERM I WAS USED FROM 1979 TO 1999, AND THEN A REVISED ONE ERM II HAS BEEN IN PLACE SINCE 1999. IN EUROPE WHEN THEY CAME OUT WITH THE EURO. THE EXCHANGE RATE MECHANISM HAS ONLY BEEN USED IN EUROPE.


MOCHASMOM COMMENT/POST (One Dinar):
Appears Asia also used an ERM. Come on XXXXX, do your homework!

http://www.apfc.nccu.edu.tw/asiandollarfolder/A%20Roadmap%20for%20the%20Asian%20Exchange%20Rate%20Mechanism%20A%20Common%20Currency%20Approach.pdf