Conscious / MP Hassan Osman: I think that the budget be postponed for after the elections and on the last session of Parliament
Conscious / Baghdad / n. And
24/1/2010 9:29 pm
A member of the Iraqi parliament, MP Hassan Othman from the Kurdistan Alliance bloc, the Kurdistan Alliance has decided that tomorrow is the last day of the parliament sessions, as stated by the President of the Kurdistan Alliance Fuad Masum very clear to members of parliament have patience a lot and we think that the issue of the budget end but you are Atqdron this topic and you play, the feelings of Iraqis.
Osman said in a telephone conversation with (the Iraqi Media News Agency / conscious): "So this time did not show things in a clear and explicit that the blocs have agreed on approving the budget , Noting that tomorrow Will show results and I think that things will not end tomorrow because some have called today with the new requirements are on the budget, for example, removing all matters concerning the Council of Ministers of the things the so-called humanitarian or social benefits. "
Osman and across his belief that "the budget be postponed until after the elections and the government has other legitimate ways to spend for example, can act (1 of 12) of the expenses last year and 20% of the investment budget will not stand the things people will not stand idly in front of this intransigence, or marginalization of the subject budget, adding that the Kurdistan Alliance will attend tomorrow until ten at night in order to reach a final solution. "
http://translate.google.com/translate?hl=ar&langpair=aren&u=http://al-iraqnews.net/new/siaysiah/49229.html&rurl=translate.google.com&twu=1&client=tmpg
Showing posts with label News Article / Opinion Piece. Show all posts
Showing posts with label News Article / Opinion Piece. Show all posts
Sunday, January 24, 2010
Monday, January 11, 2010
IRAQ EXCHANGE RATE MECHANISM - By Adam Montana @ Dinar Speculation
We’re hearing a lot of buzz on the ERM, or Exchange Rate Mechanism for Iraq. I talked about it in chat this morning but wanted to take a moment and point you in the right direction if you wanted to research Iraqi Exchange Rate Mechanism and what it means for the Reval of the Iraqi currency.
(Here’s the link to the chat: http://dinarvets.com/forums/showthread.php?t=5945)
I also posted another article that does a great job of explaining some history on currencies, and ties it to Iraqi Dinar. See that one here: http://dinarvets.com/forums/showthread.php?t=5950
ERM, or Exchange Rate Mechanism, generally refers to the EU before they went to a common currency: the Euro. This Exchange Rate Mechanism was an agreement to keep the values of the currencies of the members of the European Economic Community tightly grouped, within +/- 2.25%. If any of the currencies went outside of that range, financial institutions were designed to step in and take action to bring the currency back into range.
Definition of ERM on business dictionary: http://www.businessdictionary.com/definition/exchange-rate-mechanism-ERM.html
Let’s play a little “Connect The Dots”… we already know that there is talk of a Common Middle Eastern Currency, known as the Gulf Dinar.The Iraqi Dinar Exchange Rate Mechanism, if implemented, could be the start of stabilizing the Exchange Rate of the Iraqi Dinar prior to bringing it into the GCC, where a union of countries will support each other financially to ensure a value within a small fluctuation rate. This is known as “semi-pegging”.
So, if Iraq is looking at an ERM, and the goal of an ERM is to keep the currencies in the group (or coalition, as it is in this case) on a level par with each other, what is the likely course for the Dinar at this point in time?
Quite simply, it has to be closer to the value of the other currencies in the “basket” in order to be withing a +/- 2.5% range. If this is the plan, I wouldn’t be surprised to see either an RV very soon, OR a rapid rise in value to get it up to the rate it needs to be at in order to match the other GCC member’s currencies.
Possible speculation and proposals on the Gulf Dinar put it about 2-3 years out. If Iraq does not RV overnight, they need time to grow the currency and avoid a huge shock to their economy, so things need to start happening soon.
One thing we know for sure is that we have not seen any movement on the Dinar in over a year, and at the same time we’re hearing about stuff like an Iraqi Dinar ERM. I can only imagine that means one thing: Something is in the works.
Sunday, January 10, 2010
CLINTON: IS IRAQ READY FOR AMERICAN INVESTORS?
Is Iraq ready for American Investors
January 7, 2010
At the end of her speech to more than a thousand US and Iraqi businesspeople packed in a hotel ballroom, Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton threw an American spin on an Arab proverb: "Dawn does not come twice to wake a man - or a woman." Her point...? It's time to invest in Iraq.
It sounds crazy. Though the violence has ebbed, terrorists still make their presence felt with deadly attacks. Challenges - from dividing oil revenues to the future of the northern city of Kirkuk - threaten to split the country. Even if Iraq hangs together, it faces a daunting to-do list of reforms before it becomes a place many foreign businesses would set foot in.
Yet, like Secretary Clinton, some consultants and more than a few US businesspeople are making the case for Iraq: This uncertain period is precisely when foreign companies can reap the biggest gains. Bob Flavell had heard the same hype, but he wanted hard data about sales prospects for his company, Base 1 Welding Supply. When he asked an Iraqi trade official for it, Mr. Flavell was floored. "The numbers he was talking about, just for our product line, would exceed all of what California exported all of last year to Iraq," Flavell says. "Those are big numbers."
Iraq, to put it mildly, needs everything: more than 2 million housing units, half a million hospital beds, seemingly endless technology and know-how for an escalating oil and gas extraction industry, the rebuilding of the nation's once-robust education system from top to bottom.
http://www.dinarbanker.com/2010-iraq...investors.html
January 7, 2010
At the end of her speech to more than a thousand US and Iraqi businesspeople packed in a hotel ballroom, Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton threw an American spin on an Arab proverb: "Dawn does not come twice to wake a man - or a woman." Her point...? It's time to invest in Iraq.
It sounds crazy. Though the violence has ebbed, terrorists still make their presence felt with deadly attacks. Challenges - from dividing oil revenues to the future of the northern city of Kirkuk - threaten to split the country. Even if Iraq hangs together, it faces a daunting to-do list of reforms before it becomes a place many foreign businesses would set foot in.
Yet, like Secretary Clinton, some consultants and more than a few US businesspeople are making the case for Iraq: This uncertain period is precisely when foreign companies can reap the biggest gains. Bob Flavell had heard the same hype, but he wanted hard data about sales prospects for his company, Base 1 Welding Supply. When he asked an Iraqi trade official for it, Mr. Flavell was floored. "The numbers he was talking about, just for our product line, would exceed all of what California exported all of last year to Iraq," Flavell says. "Those are big numbers."
Iraq, to put it mildly, needs everything: more than 2 million housing units, half a million hospital beds, seemingly endless technology and know-how for an escalating oil and gas extraction industry, the rebuilding of the nation's once-robust education system from top to bottom.
http://www.dinarbanker.com/2010-iraq...investors.html
Saturday, January 9, 2010
THE U.S. PRESIDENT WITHOUT A COUNTRY
PLEASE TAKE THE TIME TO READ. VERY GOOD, AND AN OPINION BY ONE OF THE U.S. MOST RECOGNIZED CHRISTIAN MEN. NEEDS TO BE SENT TO EVERY PAPER FOR DISSEMINATION.
The President Without A Country
By Pat Boone
"We're no longer a Christian nation." - President Barack Obama, June 2007
" America has been arrogant." - President Barack Obama
"After 9/11, America didn't always live up to her ideals."- President Barack Obama
"You might say that America is a Muslim nation."- President Barack Obama, Egypt 2009
Thinking about these and other statements made by the man who wears the title of president. I keep wondering what country he believes he's president of.
In one of my very favorite stories, Edward Everett Hale's "The Man without a Country," a young Army lieutenant named Philip Nolan stands condemned for treason during the Revolutionary War, having come under the influence of Aaron Burr. When the judge asks him if he wishes to say anything before sentence is passed, young Nolan defiantly exclaims, "Damn the United States ! I wish I might never hear of the United States again!"
The stunned silence in the courtroom is palpable, pulsing. After a long pause, the judge soberly says to the angry lieutenant: "You have just pronounced your own sentence. You will never hear of the United States again... I sentence you to spend the rest of your life at sea, on one or another of this country's naval vessels - under strict orders that no one will ever speak to you again about the country you have just cursed."
And so it was. Philip Nolan was taken away and spent the next 40 years at sea, never hearing anything but an occasional slip of the tongue about America. The last few pages of the story, recounting Nolan's dying hours in his small stateroom - now turned into a shrine to the country he fore swore - never fail to bring me to tears. And I find my own love for this dream, this miracle called America , refreshed and renewed. I know how blessed and unique we are.
But reading and hearing the audacious, shocking statements of the man who was recently elected our president - a young black man living the impossible dream of millions of young Americans, past and present, black and white - I want to ask him, "Just what country do you think you're president of?"
You surely can't be referring to the United States of America , can you? America is emphatically a Christian nation, and has been from its inception! Seventy percent of her citizens identify themselves as Christian. The Declaration of Independence and our Constitution were framed, written and ratified by Christians. It's because this was, and is, a nation built on and guided by Judeo-Christian biblical principles that you, sir, have had the inestimable privilege of being elected her president..
You studied law at Harvard, didn't you, sir? You taught constitutional law in Chicago ? Did you not ever read the statement of John Jay, the first Chief Justice of the Supreme Court and an author of the landmark "Federalist Papers": "Providence has given to our people the choice of their rulers - and it is the duty, as well as the privilege and interest of our Christian nation - to select and prefer Christians for their rulers"?
In your studies, you surely must have read the decision of the Supreme Court in 1892: "Our lives and our institutions must necessarily be based upon and embody the teachings of the Redeemer of mankind. It is impossible that it should be otherwise; and in this sense and to this extent our civilization and our institutions are emphatically Christian."
Did your professors have you skip over all the high-court decisions right up till the mid 1900's that echoed and reinforced these views and intentions? Did you pick up the history of American jurisprudence only in 1947, when for the first time a phrase coined by Thomas Jefferson about a "wall of separation between church and state" was used to deny some specific religious expression - contrary to Jefferson's intent with that statement?
Or, wait a minute . were your ideas about America's Christianity formed during the 20 years you were a member of the Trinity United Church of Christ under your pastor, Jeremiah Wright? Is that where you got the idea that " America is no longer a Christian nation"? Is this where you, even as you came to call yourself a Christian, formed the belief that " America has been arrogant"?
Even if that's the understandable explanation of your damning of your country and accusing the whole nation (not just a few military officials trying their best to keep more Americans from being murdered by jihadists) of "not always living up to her ideals," how did you come up with the ridiculous, alarming notion that we might be "considered a Muslim nation"?
Is it because there are some 2 million or more Muslims living here, trying to be good Americans? Out of a current population of over 300 million, 70 percent of whom are Christians? Does that make us, by any rational definition, a "Muslim nation"?
Why are we not, then, a "Chinese nation"? A "Korean nation"? Even a "Vietnamese nation"? There are even more of these distinct groups in America than Muslims. And if the distinction you're trying to make is a religious one, why is America not "a Jewish nation"? There's actually a case to be made for the latter, because our Constitution - and the success of our Revolution and founding - owe a deep debt to our Jewish brothers.
Have you stopped to think what an actual Muslim America would be like? Have you ever really spent much time in Iran ? Even in Egypt ? You, having been instructed in Islam as a kid at a Muslim school in Indonesia and saying you still love the call to evening prayers, can surely picture our nation founded on the Quran, not the Judeo-Christian Bible, and living under Shariah law. Can't you? You do recall Muhammad's directives [Surah 9:5,73] to "break the cross" and "kill the infidel"?
It seems increasingly and painfully obvious that you are more influenced by your upbringing and questionable education than most suspected. If you consider yourself the president of a people who are "no longer Christian," who have "failed to live up to our ideals," who "have been arrogant," and might even be "considered Muslim" - you are president of a country most Americans don't recognize.
Could it be you are a president without a country?
The President Without A Country
By Pat Boone
"We're no longer a Christian nation." - President Barack Obama, June 2007
" America has been arrogant." - President Barack Obama
"After 9/11, America didn't always live up to her ideals."- President Barack Obama
"You might say that America is a Muslim nation."- President Barack Obama, Egypt 2009
Thinking about these and other statements made by the man who wears the title of president. I keep wondering what country he believes he's president of.
In one of my very favorite stories, Edward Everett Hale's "The Man without a Country," a young Army lieutenant named Philip Nolan stands condemned for treason during the Revolutionary War, having come under the influence of Aaron Burr. When the judge asks him if he wishes to say anything before sentence is passed, young Nolan defiantly exclaims, "Damn the United States ! I wish I might never hear of the United States again!"
The stunned silence in the courtroom is palpable, pulsing. After a long pause, the judge soberly says to the angry lieutenant: "You have just pronounced your own sentence. You will never hear of the United States again... I sentence you to spend the rest of your life at sea, on one or another of this country's naval vessels - under strict orders that no one will ever speak to you again about the country you have just cursed."
And so it was. Philip Nolan was taken away and spent the next 40 years at sea, never hearing anything but an occasional slip of the tongue about America. The last few pages of the story, recounting Nolan's dying hours in his small stateroom - now turned into a shrine to the country he fore swore - never fail to bring me to tears. And I find my own love for this dream, this miracle called America , refreshed and renewed. I know how blessed and unique we are.
But reading and hearing the audacious, shocking statements of the man who was recently elected our president - a young black man living the impossible dream of millions of young Americans, past and present, black and white - I want to ask him, "Just what country do you think you're president of?"
You surely can't be referring to the United States of America , can you? America is emphatically a Christian nation, and has been from its inception! Seventy percent of her citizens identify themselves as Christian. The Declaration of Independence and our Constitution were framed, written and ratified by Christians. It's because this was, and is, a nation built on and guided by Judeo-Christian biblical principles that you, sir, have had the inestimable privilege of being elected her president..
You studied law at Harvard, didn't you, sir? You taught constitutional law in Chicago ? Did you not ever read the statement of John Jay, the first Chief Justice of the Supreme Court and an author of the landmark "Federalist Papers": "Providence has given to our people the choice of their rulers - and it is the duty, as well as the privilege and interest of our Christian nation - to select and prefer Christians for their rulers"?
In your studies, you surely must have read the decision of the Supreme Court in 1892: "Our lives and our institutions must necessarily be based upon and embody the teachings of the Redeemer of mankind. It is impossible that it should be otherwise; and in this sense and to this extent our civilization and our institutions are emphatically Christian."
Did your professors have you skip over all the high-court decisions right up till the mid 1900's that echoed and reinforced these views and intentions? Did you pick up the history of American jurisprudence only in 1947, when for the first time a phrase coined by Thomas Jefferson about a "wall of separation between church and state" was used to deny some specific religious expression - contrary to Jefferson's intent with that statement?
Or, wait a minute . were your ideas about America's Christianity formed during the 20 years you were a member of the Trinity United Church of Christ under your pastor, Jeremiah Wright? Is that where you got the idea that " America is no longer a Christian nation"? Is this where you, even as you came to call yourself a Christian, formed the belief that " America has been arrogant"?
Even if that's the understandable explanation of your damning of your country and accusing the whole nation (not just a few military officials trying their best to keep more Americans from being murdered by jihadists) of "not always living up to her ideals," how did you come up with the ridiculous, alarming notion that we might be "considered a Muslim nation"?
Is it because there are some 2 million or more Muslims living here, trying to be good Americans? Out of a current population of over 300 million, 70 percent of whom are Christians? Does that make us, by any rational definition, a "Muslim nation"?
Why are we not, then, a "Chinese nation"? A "Korean nation"? Even a "Vietnamese nation"? There are even more of these distinct groups in America than Muslims. And if the distinction you're trying to make is a religious one, why is America not "a Jewish nation"? There's actually a case to be made for the latter, because our Constitution - and the success of our Revolution and founding - owe a deep debt to our Jewish brothers.
Have you stopped to think what an actual Muslim America would be like? Have you ever really spent much time in Iran ? Even in Egypt ? You, having been instructed in Islam as a kid at a Muslim school in Indonesia and saying you still love the call to evening prayers, can surely picture our nation founded on the Quran, not the Judeo-Christian Bible, and living under Shariah law. Can't you? You do recall Muhammad's directives [Surah 9:5,73] to "break the cross" and "kill the infidel"?
It seems increasingly and painfully obvious that you are more influenced by your upbringing and questionable education than most suspected. If you consider yourself the president of a people who are "no longer Christian," who have "failed to live up to our ideals," who "have been arrogant," and might even be "considered Muslim" - you are president of a country most Americans don't recognize.
Could it be you are a president without a country?
Friday, January 8, 2010
BEN FULFORD - MAJOR HAPPY CHANGES POSSIBLY THIS WEEK/MONTH
January 5, 2010
Two blue moons in a row,one New Year’s Eve in the West and one on New Year’s day in the East.
On December 21st 2009, a group of shamans held a ceremony by a lake in the Philippines. Whatever the case, there was heavy rain and thick cloud cover as the group headed to the lake for a ceremony to mark a change in how Western civilization behaves. When we arrived at the lake suddenly an area of blue sky appeared immediately above us. All around there was still heavy cloud cover and rain. However, directly over our heads, in the middle of the circle of blue sky there was a new moon. Then on New Year’s Eve, the world experienced an unheralded but precious event, a blue moon on New Year’s eve in the West and a second blue moon on New Year’s Day in Asia. A blue moon means a second full moon in one month. A full moon on New Year’s Eve happens only once in every two decades or so. Two blue moons in a row at the turn of the decade and the year has probably not happened for centuries or longer. Thus, although I have been trained in science and skepticism, I believe we have had a very auspicious beginning to 2010, the Year of the Tiger.
Furthermore, multiple reliable sources both in Asia and the West are reporting major happy changes happening soon, possibly this week or this month. We are more hopeful than we have been in a long time but, we will believe it when we see it.
http://www.welcomethelight.com/2010/01/fulford-major-happy-changes-possibly-this-week/
DINAR DADDY'S TIDBIT: He is the son of a former Parliament Member in Canada. His dad was best friends with David Rockefeller's father. He is a self-purported child from an Illuminati Family. Do you think he may know something about the IQD RV? Hmmm... I've heard and read some of his stuff, and he has always been very negative about the U.S., and the world economic crisis. Why the change in attitude? Ya just never know...
UPCOMING CONFERENCES, EVENTS, & FINANCIAL MEETINGS FOR JAN. 2010 - From KelleyBlog
DINAR DADDY TIDBIT:
I grabbed this off of the link below. The kelley blog is a fantastic source for news articles that surround our investment. The credit is 100% her's for sure! Thank you Kelley for your efforts for all to read.
http://articlesofinterest-kelley.blogspot.com/2009/01/upcoming-conferences-events-and.html
New Date scheduled for postponed UN High level Meeting ~ March
MARCH 16 -17 2010 - UNITED NATIONS "THE MONTERREY CONSENSUS AND DOHA DECLARATION"
(March 24 Launch) Asian Financial Safety Net Will Help Protect Korea, Neighbors
Older Articles From Nov. Dec. 2009 and Jan. 2010
Links to all of November 2009 Meetings and Events ...
LINKS TO DECEMBER 2009 MEETINGS AND EVENTS
Links ~ Past January 2010 Meetings etc ...HAS THE DOLLAR BOTTOMED?
Has The Dollar Bottomed?
Posted By: Bryan Rich
For much of 2009, the dollar has been the Tiger Woods of global currencies. There has been a relentless snowball of negative sentiment. And for a period of time, seemingly everyday something new, bigger and more shocking about the buck was being circulated through the media.
As Tiger can attest, when it rains, it pours …
There was news that China was trimming its holdings of U.S. Treasury bonds because the weakening dollar posed a threat to the value of their reserves.
The dollar dropped to a 2009 low. And government bonds fell when worries over rising U.S. debt levels started circulating questions about the strength of our country’s AAA credit rating.
Bernanke responded to dollar scrutiny with this statement following his speech in Jekyll Island:
“I think the issue at hand is whether or not the dollar will retain its value, and I think it will.”
That was not exactly a resounding vote of support.
Then the BRIC countries (Brazil, Russia, India and China) got together and lobbied for the replacement of the dollar as the world reserve currency.
Gold charged back to $1,000 and broke-out to new record highs as global investors looked to gold as a hedge against a falling dollar, and the potential inflationary policies the U.S. had undertaken.
And because of rock bottom interest rates in the U.S. and the falling trajectory of the dollar, it has even been used as a new funding currency for another carry trade.
Still, How Low Did the Dollar Really Go in 2009?
The sentiment has been brutally negative for the dollar. So much so that even on days when there was no real news, the media couldn’t resist running front page doom and gloom stories about the future path of the leading global currency.
But contrary to what many may think, the dollar didn’t reach record lows. In fact, at its lowest point this past November, the buck was still 5 percent above its lows from 2008.
Take a look at this chart of the dollar index …
As you can see, the dollar index surged 26 percent from the middle of 2008. Investors from around the world were running scared and found safety from the widespread economic crisis by plowing capital into the deepest, most liquid currency in the world — the U.S. dollar.
Subsequently, the dollar declined since March of this year, as fear abated and global investors gradually reversed the safe haven trade, putting capital back to work across the globe.
But even under the intense scrutiny of the past nine months, the dollar has managed only a gradual decline relative to its sharp rise of 2008.
And despite all of the doom and gloom stories over recent months, the weight of evidence is now working in the dollar’s favor!
It Looks Like the Dollar Is Breaking Out …
Americans love a comeback. And I suspect Tiger Woods will need to win at least a few golf tournaments to repair his iconic status in the golf world.
However, I don’t think the dollar will have as tough a time redeeming itself. I believe that it’ll only have to stage a sustained bounce for a couple of months to relieve the pressure valve from the dollar haters.
Already there has been a groundswell of positive news for the dollar that makes a comeback scenario look increasingly more likely …
It kicked off with the latest employment data: A downtick in the unemployment rate and a positive surprise showing far fewer new job losses. This started shifting the market’s focus toward the prospects that the Fed might start raising rates a little earlier than consensus expectations!
Then the recent retail sales report showed a much stronger number. That was a sign that the consumer might be coming back. Another data point that has encouraged market participants to consider improved growth and higher interest rate prospects in the U.S.
So we now have two developments on the economic recovery front that are positive for the dollar.
On the other side of the equation, global economic risk is soaring! And that’s good for the dollar as a safe haven currency.
The potential for a sovereign debt crisis has surged since Dubai notified its creditors late last month that it wouldn’t be making its next payment. Now it’s Greece that’s under the microscope regarding its ability to service large government debts. And a host of other European countries are looking increasingly riskier for similar reasons.
And finally, on Wednesday, the Fed announced that it would be closing its currency swap lines with foreign central banks by February 1, 2010.
[color=red]When they opened these massive swap lines in late 2008, the goal was to alleviate the dollar liquidity crunch at banks around the world. However, in the process they increased the supply of dollars around the globe — a negative consequence for the value of the dollar. But now that these lines will be closed, it’s clearly a dollar-positive development.[/color]
So the market scrutiny is starting to shift away from the dollar. And there are plenty of ugly currencies out there that will likely take the spotlight..
http://www.traderslog.com/has-the-dollar-bottomed/
Posted By: Bryan Rich
For much of 2009, the dollar has been the Tiger Woods of global currencies. There has been a relentless snowball of negative sentiment. And for a period of time, seemingly everyday something new, bigger and more shocking about the buck was being circulated through the media.
As Tiger can attest, when it rains, it pours …
There was news that China was trimming its holdings of U.S. Treasury bonds because the weakening dollar posed a threat to the value of their reserves.
The dollar dropped to a 2009 low. And government bonds fell when worries over rising U.S. debt levels started circulating questions about the strength of our country’s AAA credit rating.
Bernanke responded to dollar scrutiny with this statement following his speech in Jekyll Island:
“I think the issue at hand is whether or not the dollar will retain its value, and I think it will.”
That was not exactly a resounding vote of support.
Then the BRIC countries (Brazil, Russia, India and China) got together and lobbied for the replacement of the dollar as the world reserve currency.
Gold charged back to $1,000 and broke-out to new record highs as global investors looked to gold as a hedge against a falling dollar, and the potential inflationary policies the U.S. had undertaken.
And because of rock bottom interest rates in the U.S. and the falling trajectory of the dollar, it has even been used as a new funding currency for another carry trade.
Still, How Low Did the Dollar Really Go in 2009?
The sentiment has been brutally negative for the dollar. So much so that even on days when there was no real news, the media couldn’t resist running front page doom and gloom stories about the future path of the leading global currency.
But contrary to what many may think, the dollar didn’t reach record lows. In fact, at its lowest point this past November, the buck was still 5 percent above its lows from 2008.
Take a look at this chart of the dollar index …
As you can see, the dollar index surged 26 percent from the middle of 2008. Investors from around the world were running scared and found safety from the widespread economic crisis by plowing capital into the deepest, most liquid currency in the world — the U.S. dollar.
Subsequently, the dollar declined since March of this year, as fear abated and global investors gradually reversed the safe haven trade, putting capital back to work across the globe.
But even under the intense scrutiny of the past nine months, the dollar has managed only a gradual decline relative to its sharp rise of 2008.
And despite all of the doom and gloom stories over recent months, the weight of evidence is now working in the dollar’s favor!
It Looks Like the Dollar Is Breaking Out …
Americans love a comeback. And I suspect Tiger Woods will need to win at least a few golf tournaments to repair his iconic status in the golf world.
However, I don’t think the dollar will have as tough a time redeeming itself. I believe that it’ll only have to stage a sustained bounce for a couple of months to relieve the pressure valve from the dollar haters.
Already there has been a groundswell of positive news for the dollar that makes a comeback scenario look increasingly more likely …
It kicked off with the latest employment data: A downtick in the unemployment rate and a positive surprise showing far fewer new job losses. This started shifting the market’s focus toward the prospects that the Fed might start raising rates a little earlier than consensus expectations!
Then the recent retail sales report showed a much stronger number. That was a sign that the consumer might be coming back. Another data point that has encouraged market participants to consider improved growth and higher interest rate prospects in the U.S.
So we now have two developments on the economic recovery front that are positive for the dollar.
On the other side of the equation, global economic risk is soaring! And that’s good for the dollar as a safe haven currency.
The potential for a sovereign debt crisis has surged since Dubai notified its creditors late last month that it wouldn’t be making its next payment. Now it’s Greece that’s under the microscope regarding its ability to service large government debts. And a host of other European countries are looking increasingly riskier for similar reasons.
And finally, on Wednesday, the Fed announced that it would be closing its currency swap lines with foreign central banks by February 1, 2010.
[color=red]When they opened these massive swap lines in late 2008, the goal was to alleviate the dollar liquidity crunch at banks around the world. However, in the process they increased the supply of dollars around the globe — a negative consequence for the value of the dollar. But now that these lines will be closed, it’s clearly a dollar-positive development.[/color]
So the market scrutiny is starting to shift away from the dollar. And there are plenty of ugly currencies out there that will likely take the spotlight..
http://www.traderslog.com/has-the-dollar-bottomed/
Thursday, January 7, 2010
FINANCIAL REFORMS... OPINIONS... RUMORS
January 13th? GLOBAL FINANCIAL OVERHAUL WILL BE SEEN IN 2010
"The first big headlines of the year on financial regulatory reforms will likely come on January 13, a key date on both sides of the Atlantic"
January 15th - Interesting Rumor? or Interesting Fact?
The the Coalition Provisional Authority issued a new Iraqi dinar between October 15th (2003) through and ending on January 15th (2004) and to celebrate this historic end date of the Iraqi Dinar transitional period, the Iraqi Dinar will now be open to all the world currencies markets on this date.The rate has not been set and will not be known until the currency markets open up on Friday the 15 January 2010.
RUMOR: BANK HOLIDAY JANUARY 15, 2010
The President will allow them to make as much as they can for the Christmas Holidays then Jan 15 there will be a Bank Holiday and their new currency will be issued with a devaluation of 6 to 10 to 1. Monday, January 18, 2010 Martin Luther King Jr. Day - U.S. Bank Holiday
Bank Holiday Coming? Prepare? Within 180 Days (January 2010)
But devalue against what? The euro? Doubtful. Gold? Maybe. Or vs. the IMF basket of currencies (which seems more likely)—& much in the news recently. Any kind of bank holiday will push the US$ lower, which may be a bonus benefit to their ongoing scenario of letting the $ fall. Such a fall would get the devaluation they want without having to declare it. In sum, the insiders want more bank & system control, fewer banks & a lower US$. A bank holiday would suit all their needs.
http://articlesofinterest-kelley.blo...teresting.html
"The first big headlines of the year on financial regulatory reforms will likely come on January 13, a key date on both sides of the Atlantic"
January 15th - Interesting Rumor? or Interesting Fact?
The the Coalition Provisional Authority issued a new Iraqi dinar between October 15th (2003) through and ending on January 15th (2004) and to celebrate this historic end date of the Iraqi Dinar transitional period, the Iraqi Dinar will now be open to all the world currencies markets on this date.The rate has not been set and will not be known until the currency markets open up on Friday the 15 January 2010.
RUMOR: BANK HOLIDAY JANUARY 15, 2010
The President will allow them to make as much as they can for the Christmas Holidays then Jan 15 there will be a Bank Holiday and their new currency will be issued with a devaluation of 6 to 10 to 1. Monday, January 18, 2010 Martin Luther King Jr. Day - U.S. Bank Holiday
Bank Holiday Coming? Prepare? Within 180 Days (January 2010)
But devalue against what? The euro? Doubtful. Gold? Maybe. Or vs. the IMF basket of currencies (which seems more likely)—& much in the news recently. Any kind of bank holiday will push the US$ lower, which may be a bonus benefit to their ongoing scenario of letting the $ fall. Such a fall would get the devaluation they want without having to declare it. In sum, the insiders want more bank & system control, fewer banks & a lower US$. A bank holiday would suit all their needs.
http://articlesofinterest-kelley.blo...teresting.html
Wednesday, January 6, 2010
LAUNCH OF SINGLE GULF CURRENCY POSSIBLE BY 2015
Thursday, January 07, 2010Launch of single Gulf currency possible by 2015
A single Gulf currency could be launched in 2015 if Gulf Co-operation Council (GCC) states speed up the process, a senior official from the bloc's secretariat said. The much-delayed monetary union was endorsed last month.
Policymakers from the four states – Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Qatar and Bahrain – are expected to set a timetable for the creation of a joint central bank, but launching the single currency is still a distant prospect.
"I expect the single currency to be launched in 2015, provided we step up efforts and work of various committees," said Mohamed Al Mazrooei, GCC Assistant Secretary-General for Economic Affairs.
Mazrooei's comment is the first from the GCC secretariat that sets a potential new timetable for the single currency's launch after the bloc abandoned an initial 2010 deadline.
"I think it's an optimistic scenario given the slower-than-expected progress that has been achieved up to now," said John Sfakianakis, Calyon's chief economist for the Middle East. "It's feasible if the political will exists. They need to be steadfast to push it forward and complete technical tasks," he added.
A single Gulf currency could be launched in 2015 if Gulf Co-operation Council (GCC) states speed up the process, a senior official from the bloc's secretariat said. The much-delayed monetary union was endorsed last month.
Policymakers from the four states – Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Qatar and Bahrain – are expected to set a timetable for the creation of a joint central bank, but launching the single currency is still a distant prospect.
"I expect the single currency to be launched in 2015, provided we step up efforts and work of various committees," said Mohamed Al Mazrooei, GCC Assistant Secretary-General for Economic Affairs.
Mazrooei's comment is the first from the GCC secretariat that sets a potential new timetable for the single currency's launch after the bloc abandoned an initial 2010 deadline.
"I think it's an optimistic scenario given the slower-than-expected progress that has been achieved up to now," said John Sfakianakis, Calyon's chief economist for the Middle East. "It's feasible if the political will exists. They need to be steadfast to push it forward and complete technical tasks," he added.
emirates24/7
GLOBAL FINANCIAL OVERHAUL WILL BE SEEN IN 2010 (Jan 13th?)
"The first big headlines of the year on financial regulatory reforms will likely come on January 13, a key date on both sides of the Atlantic"
January 6, 2010
Global financial regulation overhaul seen in 2010
WASHINGTON/LONDON (AFP) - Global financial regulation has changed little since the 2008 banking crisis, but that won't be the case much longer.
U.S. and EU authorities are expected to hammer out the final shape of a new regulatory order in 2010 that will fundamentally change how world banks and markets operate.
Stricter limits on leverage and capital will emerge, leading eventually to slimmer profits for banks, policy analysts said. Formerly unregulated off-exchange derivatives markets will have to conform to new procedures.
Lenders' power to package and securitize mortgages and other forms of debt will face new limits, while hedge funds once the darlings of high finance will face new scrutiny.
Procedural hurdles remain to be crossed by reform advocates. In the United States, the House of Representatives has approved a bill, but the Senate has not and the prospect for that was clouded on Wednesday by news that Senate Banking Committee Chairman Christopher Dodd will not seek reelection.
Two senior Democratic aides said Dodd will make his announcement on Wednesday at a news conference, raising questions about his plans. In addition the retirement of another senator casts doubt on the Democrats' slim majority in the Senate. Democratic Senator Byron Dorgan said on Tuesday that he will not seek reelection.
Banking lobbyists and Republicans are working to block the reforms. Senate debate on the proposed changes will resume this month, with analysts expecting passage of legislation in early spring, if Dodd stays committed to reform and Democrats can muster the votes.
The Senate and House would then have to agree on a single measure to send to President Barack Obama. That could happen in April or May, according to policy analysts.
In Europe, EU member states and the European Parliament must still rule on a range of proposed regulations for banks, markets, insurers, hedge funds and private equity groups.
"The reform package will be more far-reaching than anything we've seen since the Great Depression, and there is a high likelihood it will pass," said the Eurasia Group, a research and consulting firm that closely follows Washington politics.
JAN. 13 KEY IN U.S. AND EU
The first big headlines of the year on financial regulatory reforms will likely come on January 13, a key date on both sides of the Atlantic.
The European Parliament will hold a confirmation hearing that day with Michel Barnier, the Frenchman that the European Commission has proposed oversee the EU's financial services industry and play a core role in drafting legislation.
Britain, the bloc's biggest financial center, will look for clues as to how interventionist Barnier is likely to be.
"One of the biggest things at the European level is what they are calling the markets infrastructure directive. It started life about regulating derivatives but is becoming a complete redesign of financial trading in Europe," said Simon Gleeson, a partner at the law firm Clifford Chance.
Barnier is expected to unveil this draft law, which will include mandatory clearing of as many off-exchange derivatives contracts as possible, by July.
Also on January 13, the U.S. Congress' Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission will begin its first public hearing, a two-day session with testimony from the CEOs of Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan Chase and Morgan Stanley.
The commission's work, culminating in a report to Congress due December 15, will be mainly retrospective, seeking explanations for the crisis that rocked economies worldwide. But it is likely to spur Senate debate going forward.
SENATE RETURNS
The Senate will reconvene on January 20, with hearings expected to commence promptly in the banking committee.
EU states and the European Parliament will begin finalizing adoption of a new supervisory structure for banks, markets and insurers, due to be in place by the end of this year.
New EU rules to regulate hedge funds and private equity groups are also set to be finalized in coming months.
The next few months will test transatlantic lawmakers' ability to make sure U.S. and EU efforts don't diverge.
"Both sides have made it clear they are trying to make sure there are no conflicts, but both sides are creatures of their legislators," said Graham Bishop, an EU financial services industry expert.
The regulation agenda is being driven globally by the G20 group of leading nations, which should help jurisdictions sing the same songs, Bishop added.
The Basel Committee on Banking Supervision, a global body of regulators and central bankers, will soon start assessing the impact of its December package of reforms to toughen up bank capital and liquidity requirements across the world.
This will be key to the committee's harder task of "calibrating" or fixing the new higher levels of capital banks will have to hold from the end of 2012 to help avert more huge public bailouts in a future crisis.
related articles ~ link ~
*** Links - Nationalize the Banks ... Plan Moving Forward ...
January 6, 2010Global financial regulation overhaul seen in 2010
WASHINGTON/LONDON (AFP) - Global financial regulation has changed little since the 2008 banking crisis, but that won't be the case much longer.
U.S. and EU authorities are expected to hammer out the final shape of a new regulatory order in 2010 that will fundamentally change how world banks and markets operate.
Stricter limits on leverage and capital will emerge, leading eventually to slimmer profits for banks, policy analysts said. Formerly unregulated off-exchange derivatives markets will have to conform to new procedures.
Lenders' power to package and securitize mortgages and other forms of debt will face new limits, while hedge funds once the darlings of high finance will face new scrutiny.
Procedural hurdles remain to be crossed by reform advocates. In the United States, the House of Representatives has approved a bill, but the Senate has not and the prospect for that was clouded on Wednesday by news that Senate Banking Committee Chairman Christopher Dodd will not seek reelection.
Two senior Democratic aides said Dodd will make his announcement on Wednesday at a news conference, raising questions about his plans. In addition the retirement of another senator casts doubt on the Democrats' slim majority in the Senate. Democratic Senator Byron Dorgan said on Tuesday that he will not seek reelection.
Banking lobbyists and Republicans are working to block the reforms. Senate debate on the proposed changes will resume this month, with analysts expecting passage of legislation in early spring, if Dodd stays committed to reform and Democrats can muster the votes.
The Senate and House would then have to agree on a single measure to send to President Barack Obama. That could happen in April or May, according to policy analysts.
In Europe, EU member states and the European Parliament must still rule on a range of proposed regulations for banks, markets, insurers, hedge funds and private equity groups.
"The reform package will be more far-reaching than anything we've seen since the Great Depression, and there is a high likelihood it will pass," said the Eurasia Group, a research and consulting firm that closely follows Washington politics.
JAN. 13 KEY IN U.S. AND EU
The first big headlines of the year on financial regulatory reforms will likely come on January 13, a key date on both sides of the Atlantic.
The European Parliament will hold a confirmation hearing that day with Michel Barnier, the Frenchman that the European Commission has proposed oversee the EU's financial services industry and play a core role in drafting legislation.
Britain, the bloc's biggest financial center, will look for clues as to how interventionist Barnier is likely to be.
"One of the biggest things at the European level is what they are calling the markets infrastructure directive. It started life about regulating derivatives but is becoming a complete redesign of financial trading in Europe," said Simon Gleeson, a partner at the law firm Clifford Chance.
Barnier is expected to unveil this draft law, which will include mandatory clearing of as many off-exchange derivatives contracts as possible, by July.
Also on January 13, the U.S. Congress' Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission will begin its first public hearing, a two-day session with testimony from the CEOs of Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan Chase and Morgan Stanley.
The commission's work, culminating in a report to Congress due December 15, will be mainly retrospective, seeking explanations for the crisis that rocked economies worldwide. But it is likely to spur Senate debate going forward.
SENATE RETURNS
The Senate will reconvene on January 20, with hearings expected to commence promptly in the banking committee.
EU states and the European Parliament will begin finalizing adoption of a new supervisory structure for banks, markets and insurers, due to be in place by the end of this year.
New EU rules to regulate hedge funds and private equity groups are also set to be finalized in coming months.
The next few months will test transatlantic lawmakers' ability to make sure U.S. and EU efforts don't diverge.
"Both sides have made it clear they are trying to make sure there are no conflicts, but both sides are creatures of their legislators," said Graham Bishop, an EU financial services industry expert.
The regulation agenda is being driven globally by the G20 group of leading nations, which should help jurisdictions sing the same songs, Bishop added.
The Basel Committee on Banking Supervision, a global body of regulators and central bankers, will soon start assessing the impact of its December package of reforms to toughen up bank capital and liquidity requirements across the world.
This will be key to the committee's harder task of "calibrating" or fixing the new higher levels of capital banks will have to hold from the end of 2012 to help avert more huge public bailouts in a future crisis.
related articles ~ link ~
*** Links - Nationalize the Banks ... Plan Moving Forward ...
Tuesday, January 5, 2010
CEO AL-WARKA BANKl: ASSETS & SHARES FROZEN BY ISX
http://www.americancontractor.com/2007/12/ceo_alwarka_bank_assets_and_sh.html
CEO Al-Warka Bank; Assets and Shares frozen by ISX
The wheels of Justice do turn ever so slowly but they do turn.
You can't say the American Contractor blogger didn't try to warn you as you steadily wired your money, opened your Iraqi bank accounts, re-smuggled your Iraqi Dinar currency back to the Republic of Iraq, participated in the illegal proxy program, bought shares that you don't legally own and the list goes on and on.
I was wondering how long this deception was going to continue? Really, just how long...do people really send money blindly half way around the world. I guess so..last count our Intel section estimates 15 million usd in overseas accounts. Now that is a nice slush fund. I have mentioned this before remember? You just didn't believe it. That's okay. Because you probably won't believe what I am going to tell you now either.
I was going to wait until after the Christmas Holidays, tis the season, to post anything new. You know start the New Year right with a brand new post. Well, since certain dinar forums are up in flames due to some information about Warka Bank and the urging of close friends I reconsidered.
As I have mentioned in the beginning of this post the wheels of justice are slowly turning which is good for the people who are trying to operate within the law and not so good for people who are breaking the law.
When I am mentioning laws I mean Central Bank of Iraq, Iraq Stock Exchange, Iraq Securities Commission, Ministry of Interior, Ministry of Finance and any other Iraq laws that I haven't mentioned in the Iraqi government alphabet soup gang.
Let's start with Uncle Khaleel, who is a senior member of the Al-Bunnia family Dynasty. Last summer, while the market was getting ready for the intro of foreigners on 2 August 2007, Uncle Khaleel decided to sell short Pepsi-Cola. Well, Uncle Khaleel lost and subsequently was unable to recover all the shares he leveraged. Some of the Shares lost belonged to unsuspecting members of the illegal proxy Company Shownies. On 10 December 2007, the CEO, Executive Director of the Iraq Stock Exchange, the Honorable Mr. Taha Abdul-Salam (I say honorable because he is a good man) issued a directive to all ISX Stock Brokers to seize all property of several members of the Al-Bunnia family.
Sa'd Sa'doun Al-Bunnia, CEO of Al-Warka Bank name was also on the ISX Memo and all his assets are subject to seizure.
Remember the date of the memo is 10 December of this year and you have to ask yourself why hasn't Official representatives of Warka Bank announce this particular Iraq Stock Exchange Memo to any of their current and future shareholders? Not a peep!!
I say Official Representatives because we all know the unofficial self appointed, misguided, unknowingly deceived, Warka poster child, are out there keeping the dream alive...ie...well you know who you are.
All of the persons mentioned in the ISX Memo are members of of the Al-Bunnia family and you can read it for yourself in the .pdf that I am enclosing in this post.
Don't worry my fellow readers I won't allow you to scramble to locate a professionally vetted Arabic translator. Time is precious and I will save you the time. Here, at American Contractor blog site we have on Staff Beautiful and professionally vetted Arabic Translators like M.K. who has already translated the Arabic version of the ISX Memo to English for your viewing. Thank you M.K. job well done.
Warka Bank has whether you want to believe it or not has been in conflict with laws and regulatory requirements from the CBI, ISX, ISC, MoI, MoF and since then had been fined 1 million Iraqi Dinar a day for more then a year. The fine was levied by the CBI against Warka Bank for failure to provide documentation for the CBI's annual Audit.
The proxy company Shownies, is a direct violation of Central Bank of Iraq laws regarding banks and Iraq Stock Exchange not only the proxy company but also the limits of the banks bottom line when unfavorable market conditions results leading to the banks drop in value without adequate systems in place to maintain liquidity. The bigger issue from this circumstance is that it places the Central Bank of Iraq and the Iraq Securities Commission at odds with one another as to who has jurisdiction over banking institutions who also have Brokerage Companies.
Not too long ago the Iraq Securities Commission issued instructions to all Iraq Banking institutions to spin off their Brokerage Companies into separate legal companies registered with the appropriate Ministries to conduct business in Iraq. Guess which bank has not done this?
There is no published proof that Shownies is not owned by the CEO Sa'd Sa'doun Al-Bunnia, so it is subject to seizure. All assets frozen.
Now you have to ask yourself how has Warka Bank owned proxy company Shownies, been initiating stock trades after the ISX memo dated 10 December?
If you find out how, please let me know because it's a mystery to us.
If you used Warka Bank Proxy Company to purchase shares in someone else's name you do not legally own them and have no grounds for complaint and is subject to seizure. See ISX Memo.
To be fair to Warka Bank they will continue to operate as normal and their banking customers are not the focus of this investigation. Remember it is their banking customers who are not the subject of this investigation Saad is a principal subject of this legal action and by the terms defined in this letter and the others issued by other institutions and ministries Saad and all of his assets are subject to the terms of the legal action. You don't know what is going to happen in the future and with the other agencies and Iraq government entities.
Warka Bank did not notify anyone about the ISX Memo and get in front of the story, it is possible they needed time to reorganize, shelter assets, move assets to another place before others attempted the same actions to protect their interest.
Dear readers there is more to the story, more documents, more memo's, just can't wait to divulge what we here at American Contractor blog site knew all along. You just have to keep checking back and hopefully I'll post some more documents soon.
Will have a meeting soon with the Staff and the CEO/President of Baby Biltmore. I've heard through the grapevine there was a problem with my truck key? Well, anyways looking forward to the rest and relaxation in my executive suite for the Holidays. Much Love!
Please keep in mind fellow readers; I have nothing against Warka Bank. I know, it's hard too believe. I just want them to follow the law like everyone else. It's not that hard. Plus, I hate to see my fellow Americans being taking advantage. Too much money spent and lives lost. We are Americans and, I can't forget my friend investors northern, we follow the rule of law.
Feel Free to submit your comments.
Merry Christmas and have a Happy New Year.
Friday, January 1, 2010
USD COLLAPSE 2012 AND THE END OF THE WORLD AS WE KNOW IT
by Christopher Laird, PrudentSquirrel.com | December 29, 2009
Devolution of the USD 2012?
As the first public article for me just before 2010, it seems appropriate for me to comment on one of the biggest stories we will be all facing – that is an end game of events leading to the end of the USD. The implications for the world are no less than Armageddon – like. I mean it.
Before we get into some details, I have been working on forecasts for 2010, and my study of the USD situation and how much time it has left.
I first came to the conclusion that it was roughly (and I am getting close here on timing, I’m sure of this) two years from 2010. Actually, the calculation is two more years of relative USD functionality before the world realizes in about a shocking week’s time that the USD is just about to really go belly up. It’s not 5 years out anymore in my calculations, we have roughly two more years left.
Wait, that coincides with 2012!
It then occurred to me, as an afterthought, wait a minute – that takes us right to 2012!…That has some real significance for many reasons. It was an accident my analysis led to that date, I did not ask ‘Will the USD collapse in 2012?’ and then do the analysis, it was the other way around. I did the analysis first and then was impressed that the date actually came to that fateful date all the prophecies are going crazy about – 2012.
I find this coincidence remarkable. I think we all are aware of many economic and political disasters that will unfold if the USD were to actually collapse. The US economy would stop dead for a period of time. And, the rest of the world, hitherto dependent on the old industrial/consumer economic model will have to find a new economic paradigm to plan their economies…
Let me interpret that last paragraph for you – The USD collapse means the entire structure of the world economy will collapse for a period of time, with a collapsed supply chain, among other things. The world will also go through cataclysms politically during that period. That usually leads to massive wars… starvation and mass homelessness – around the world…
If it fits, then it fits.
Gee, that sounds familiar, wait, it’s the same stuff being prophesied in many of the numerous 2012 prophecies of various major religions! Hmm, that is quite the coincidence. The demise of the USD will collapse the entire world economy and lead to collapsed polities, and then a massive world war. Yep, it fits like a glove. And try this on for size- I do not believe in coincidence.
Interesting.
Of course, some people cringe at an analyst such as myself talking about ‘religious bunkum prophecies’ or so it goes. But consider that this analyst is a mathematician and also a former Oracle database systems engineer. I’m not exactly some dreamer. I certainly know the analytical methods…
So, why is Chris saying this stuff then? How can you combine prophecies with analytical methods? Well, for one thing, I have a thinking paradigm where ‘if it works, it must be true, don’t leave out weird things in analysis, insisting only on some calculation based prediction’. That’s what for example chartists do. Everything must be analytical to lots of people, and that is totally wrong often! (How do you think I have been able to make major predictions months ahead of others???)
The trouble with being analytical all the time is that there are times, and this is proven, where chaos enters the picture and everything changes. Chaos is not predictable, by definition. But let’s not digress too much.
I have various metrics I’m using to come to this ‘USD has 2 years left’ proposition. By the way, I am not saying definitively, yet, that the USD only has 2 years left. This is a proposition we are discussing here, not yet a certainty.
What would happen in a USD collapse?
* The US and Western economies will all face insolvency simultaneously, with the US first in line.
* The entire Western industrial/consumer/credit economy will fall apart so fast it will make your head spin. The supply chain will stop and stores will empty in less than 3 days.
* The USD will fall over 50% in one week’s time, till it temporarily stabilizes before its final last gasp. Remember the Lehman panic over those several weeks? You have seen nothing yet.
* Worldwide currency panic will set in paralyzing what’s left of the world economy, that means the ‘emerging markets’ stop dead too.
* China has a revolution, or goes into military mode, which is worse.
* A one world currency will be demanded and implemented, and it better be fast too since the cities only have 3 days food on average…(by the way I know for a fact that a one world currency can be implemented electronically and turned on in one hour, if they wanted!)
And so on. How will Asia fare? Horribly. Look, if you based your entire economic plan on Western consumerism, and that goes away, so does your plan. It’s dead. If Western consumerism goes away, then the entire foundation of the Asia macro economy instantly crashes and stops cold. Do you remember what happened that fateful last quarter of 2008, after the Lehman debacle, and the world banking system almost collapsed en masse? Exports from China and Japan for example collapsed over 30%!
Don’t think economic demand cannot stop on a dime, because we already had one very scary case of this last year.
So, all the pundits aside, Asia gets killed too economically. The big question is, can they successfully adapt to a new economic paradigm before they have their own revolutions? I do not think so.
It will be a dark time worldwide.
There is a lot more to say here. Needless to say that will be in our future newsletters for paid subscribers. If you noticed, we have not been publishing as many public articles, and one reason is that our paid people get a great deal more of this analysis than the public articles offer. Obviously. And we have quite a batch of recent newsletters out, that will most definitely intrigue you. They are my best stuff to date.
Lastly, I would like to point out that we have made some astounding predictions over the last two years about the USD and gold and other currencies. If you stop by our site, we’ll have a page showing you them (up hopefully today). We do not make many predictions like that, maybe 2 or 3 a year. But our last batch was quite on the money… you’ll see when you take a look.
Copyright © 2009 Christopher Laird
Editorial Archive
http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/laird/2009/1229.html
Devolution of the USD 2012?
As the first public article for me just before 2010, it seems appropriate for me to comment on one of the biggest stories we will be all facing – that is an end game of events leading to the end of the USD. The implications for the world are no less than Armageddon – like. I mean it.
Before we get into some details, I have been working on forecasts for 2010, and my study of the USD situation and how much time it has left.
I first came to the conclusion that it was roughly (and I am getting close here on timing, I’m sure of this) two years from 2010. Actually, the calculation is two more years of relative USD functionality before the world realizes in about a shocking week’s time that the USD is just about to really go belly up. It’s not 5 years out anymore in my calculations, we have roughly two more years left.
Wait, that coincides with 2012!
It then occurred to me, as an afterthought, wait a minute – that takes us right to 2012!…That has some real significance for many reasons. It was an accident my analysis led to that date, I did not ask ‘Will the USD collapse in 2012?’ and then do the analysis, it was the other way around. I did the analysis first and then was impressed that the date actually came to that fateful date all the prophecies are going crazy about – 2012.
I find this coincidence remarkable. I think we all are aware of many economic and political disasters that will unfold if the USD were to actually collapse. The US economy would stop dead for a period of time. And, the rest of the world, hitherto dependent on the old industrial/consumer economic model will have to find a new economic paradigm to plan their economies…
Let me interpret that last paragraph for you – The USD collapse means the entire structure of the world economy will collapse for a period of time, with a collapsed supply chain, among other things. The world will also go through cataclysms politically during that period. That usually leads to massive wars… starvation and mass homelessness – around the world…
If it fits, then it fits.
Gee, that sounds familiar, wait, it’s the same stuff being prophesied in many of the numerous 2012 prophecies of various major religions! Hmm, that is quite the coincidence. The demise of the USD will collapse the entire world economy and lead to collapsed polities, and then a massive world war. Yep, it fits like a glove. And try this on for size- I do not believe in coincidence.
Interesting.
Of course, some people cringe at an analyst such as myself talking about ‘religious bunkum prophecies’ or so it goes. But consider that this analyst is a mathematician and also a former Oracle database systems engineer. I’m not exactly some dreamer. I certainly know the analytical methods…
So, why is Chris saying this stuff then? How can you combine prophecies with analytical methods? Well, for one thing, I have a thinking paradigm where ‘if it works, it must be true, don’t leave out weird things in analysis, insisting only on some calculation based prediction’. That’s what for example chartists do. Everything must be analytical to lots of people, and that is totally wrong often! (How do you think I have been able to make major predictions months ahead of others???)
The trouble with being analytical all the time is that there are times, and this is proven, where chaos enters the picture and everything changes. Chaos is not predictable, by definition. But let’s not digress too much.
I have various metrics I’m using to come to this ‘USD has 2 years left’ proposition. By the way, I am not saying definitively, yet, that the USD only has 2 years left. This is a proposition we are discussing here, not yet a certainty.
What would happen in a USD collapse?
* The US and Western economies will all face insolvency simultaneously, with the US first in line.
* The entire Western industrial/consumer/credit economy will fall apart so fast it will make your head spin. The supply chain will stop and stores will empty in less than 3 days.
* The USD will fall over 50% in one week’s time, till it temporarily stabilizes before its final last gasp. Remember the Lehman panic over those several weeks? You have seen nothing yet.
* Worldwide currency panic will set in paralyzing what’s left of the world economy, that means the ‘emerging markets’ stop dead too.
* China has a revolution, or goes into military mode, which is worse.
* A one world currency will be demanded and implemented, and it better be fast too since the cities only have 3 days food on average…(by the way I know for a fact that a one world currency can be implemented electronically and turned on in one hour, if they wanted!)
And so on. How will Asia fare? Horribly. Look, if you based your entire economic plan on Western consumerism, and that goes away, so does your plan. It’s dead. If Western consumerism goes away, then the entire foundation of the Asia macro economy instantly crashes and stops cold. Do you remember what happened that fateful last quarter of 2008, after the Lehman debacle, and the world banking system almost collapsed en masse? Exports from China and Japan for example collapsed over 30%!
Don’t think economic demand cannot stop on a dime, because we already had one very scary case of this last year.
So, all the pundits aside, Asia gets killed too economically. The big question is, can they successfully adapt to a new economic paradigm before they have their own revolutions? I do not think so.
It will be a dark time worldwide.
There is a lot more to say here. Needless to say that will be in our future newsletters for paid subscribers. If you noticed, we have not been publishing as many public articles, and one reason is that our paid people get a great deal more of this analysis than the public articles offer. Obviously. And we have quite a batch of recent newsletters out, that will most definitely intrigue you. They are my best stuff to date.
Lastly, I would like to point out that we have made some astounding predictions over the last two years about the USD and gold and other currencies. If you stop by our site, we’ll have a page showing you them (up hopefully today). We do not make many predictions like that, maybe 2 or 3 a year. But our last batch was quite on the money… you’ll see when you take a look.
Copyright © 2009 Christopher Laird
Editorial Archive
http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/laird/2009/1229.html
Wednesday, December 30, 2009
IKNOWHEIS POST - One Dinar
iknowHEis POST:
I received this from a friend.
Read this then go into sites below there is a very interesting Presidential Paper. Get this to who you deem so. I personally talked to a member of the International Monetary Fund this week as well as the World bank. A lot will happen when they vote in March 2010. I looked it up & it is accurate when they are meeting. This will give you a lot to pray about. They told us the economy is stabilizing right now but as of 2 days ago the dollar was at 50cents to the Euro. If you have more accurate info please send. We play Global markets every day so we are informed that way.
Subject: Fw: Obama Orders 1 Million US Troops to Prepare for Civil War
Date: Mon, 7 Dec 2009 22:32:15 -0600
Ominous.. we'll soon see if this is true.
Obama Orders 1 Million US Troops to Prepare for Civil War
related: Russian Professor Predicts End of U.S.
November 28, 2009
American Resistance Radio
Russian Military Analysts are reporting to Prime Minister Putin that US President Barack Obama has issued orders to his Northern Command’s (USNORTHCOM) top leader, US Air Force General Gene Renuart, to “begin immediately” increasing his military forces to 1 million troops by January 30, 2010, in what these reports warn is an expected outbreak of civil war within the United States before the end of winter.
According to these reports, Obama has had over these past weeks “numerous” meetings with his war council about how best to manage the expected implosion of his Nations banking system while at the same time attempting to keep the United States military hegemony over the World in what Russian Military Analysts state is a “last ditch gambit” whose success is “far from certain”.
And to Obama’s “last ditch gambit”, these reports continue, he is to announce in a nationwide address to his people this coming week that he is going to expand the level of US Military Forces in Afghanistan by tens of thousands of troops, while at the same time using the deployment of these soldiers as a “cover” for returning to the United States over 200,000 additional American soldiers from the over 800 bases in over 39 countries they have stationed around the Globe bringing the level of these forces in America to over 1 million, a number the US Military believes will be able to contain the “explosion of violence” expected to roil these peoples when they learn their economy has been bankrupted.
These reports further state that at the same time Obama will be attempting to keep his Nation from violent disintegration, the tens of thousands of additional troops he will send to Afghanistan are to be ordered to Kandahar where the Americans and their NATO allies will begin their final attempt to secure their TAPI (Turkmenistan, Afghanistan, Pakistan and India) pipeline, which without the Western Nations, due to their grave lack of alternative energy resources, and being cut off from these vast Central Asian supplies (which both Russia and China are seeking to insure), are warned will totally collapse.
Making the American’s (and by extension the West’s) situation even worse are new reports coming from the International Energy Agency stating that “under pressure” from the US government they have been “deliberately underplaying” a looming Global oil shortage for fear of triggering panic buying and raising the Americans fear over the end of oil supremacy because it would threaten their power over access to our World’s last remaining oil resources.
To the scariest “end game” maneuvers being made by Obama, in his attempt to protect Americas Global hegemony, is his record shattering move in plunging the United States $3.5 Trillion further into debt, and which raises the total amount owed by the United States, to its citizens and the World, to the unprecedented height of over $106 Trillion.
So alarming has Obama’s actions become (especially since they are being imitated by all of the Western powers) that the managing-director of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), Dominique Strauss-Kahn, warned this past week that the “stimulus actions” of the West (which in essence is nothing more than the printing of money with nothing to back it up) has now become a “threat to democracy” as millions of people are expected to erupt in violence against their governments over the theft of their money and their futures.
Most unfortunately for the American people though is that this IMF warning fell on “deaf ears” in the United States with the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President, James Bullard, saying this week that the US would continue its “stimulus actions” because they “would give more flexibility to US policymakers”, a most absurd statement especially when viewed in the light of the unprecedented debt payments currently looming over the American economy they have no ability whatsoever to pay.
To the ability of the West’s banking giants to save their Nation’s economies, even worse news came this week with the US ratings giant Standards & Poors issuing a warning that “every single bank in Japan, the US, Germany, Spain, and Italy included in S&P’s list of 45 Global lenders remain unsafe", a warning which then lead to one of Europe’s largest banks, Société Générale, warning its clients to prepare for a “total Global Economic Collapse”.
To the fears of Obama over the United States erupting into civil war once the full extent of the rape and pillaging of these peoples by their banks and government becomes known to them, grim evidence now shows the likelihood of this occurring much sooner than later, especially in new poll figures showing that Obama’s approval rating among white Americans has now fallen to 39%. A number made more significant when one realizes that the white population of the United States comprises 74% of their estimated 398 million citizens, or put more ominously in these reports as “over 220 million American people armed to the teeth and ready to explode”.
Though the coming civil war in the United States is being virtually ignored by their propaganda media, the same cannot be said of Russia, where leading Russian political analyst, Professor Igor Panarin has long warned that the economic turmoil in the United States has confirmed his long-held view that the US is heading for collapse, and will divide into separate parts.
Professor Igor Panarin further stated in his warning that “the US Dollar is not secured by anything. The country’s foreign debt has grown like an avalanche, even though in the early 1980s there was no debt. By 1998, when I first made my prediction, it had exceeded $2 trillion. Now it is more than 11 trillion. This is a pyramid that can only collapse.”
What remains to be seen, and these reports do not speculate upon, is if the citizen-soldiers of the United States will fire upon and kill their fellow countrymen during the coming conflict, but if history is to be our guide clearly shows this will be the case as the once great American Nation continues its headlong plunge into the abyss of history. May God have mercy upon all of them.
http://freedomfighterradio.net/?p=12655#more-12655
http://standeyo.com/NEWS/09_USA/091207.civil.war.Obama.troops.html
I received this from a friend.
Read this then go into sites below there is a very interesting Presidential Paper. Get this to who you deem so. I personally talked to a member of the International Monetary Fund this week as well as the World bank. A lot will happen when they vote in March 2010. I looked it up & it is accurate when they are meeting. This will give you a lot to pray about. They told us the economy is stabilizing right now but as of 2 days ago the dollar was at 50cents to the Euro. If you have more accurate info please send. We play Global markets every day so we are informed that way.
Subject: Fw: Obama Orders 1 Million US Troops to Prepare for Civil War
Date: Mon, 7 Dec 2009 22:32:15 -0600
Ominous.. we'll soon see if this is true.
Obama Orders 1 Million US Troops to Prepare for Civil War
related: Russian Professor Predicts End of U.S.
November 28, 2009
American Resistance Radio
Russian Military Analysts are reporting to Prime Minister Putin that US President Barack Obama has issued orders to his Northern Command’s (USNORTHCOM) top leader, US Air Force General Gene Renuart, to “begin immediately” increasing his military forces to 1 million troops by January 30, 2010, in what these reports warn is an expected outbreak of civil war within the United States before the end of winter.
According to these reports, Obama has had over these past weeks “numerous” meetings with his war council about how best to manage the expected implosion of his Nations banking system while at the same time attempting to keep the United States military hegemony over the World in what Russian Military Analysts state is a “last ditch gambit” whose success is “far from certain”.
And to Obama’s “last ditch gambit”, these reports continue, he is to announce in a nationwide address to his people this coming week that he is going to expand the level of US Military Forces in Afghanistan by tens of thousands of troops, while at the same time using the deployment of these soldiers as a “cover” for returning to the United States over 200,000 additional American soldiers from the over 800 bases in over 39 countries they have stationed around the Globe bringing the level of these forces in America to over 1 million, a number the US Military believes will be able to contain the “explosion of violence” expected to roil these peoples when they learn their economy has been bankrupted.
These reports further state that at the same time Obama will be attempting to keep his Nation from violent disintegration, the tens of thousands of additional troops he will send to Afghanistan are to be ordered to Kandahar where the Americans and their NATO allies will begin their final attempt to secure their TAPI (Turkmenistan, Afghanistan, Pakistan and India) pipeline, which without the Western Nations, due to their grave lack of alternative energy resources, and being cut off from these vast Central Asian supplies (which both Russia and China are seeking to insure), are warned will totally collapse.
Making the American’s (and by extension the West’s) situation even worse are new reports coming from the International Energy Agency stating that “under pressure” from the US government they have been “deliberately underplaying” a looming Global oil shortage for fear of triggering panic buying and raising the Americans fear over the end of oil supremacy because it would threaten their power over access to our World’s last remaining oil resources.
To the scariest “end game” maneuvers being made by Obama, in his attempt to protect Americas Global hegemony, is his record shattering move in plunging the United States $3.5 Trillion further into debt, and which raises the total amount owed by the United States, to its citizens and the World, to the unprecedented height of over $106 Trillion.
So alarming has Obama’s actions become (especially since they are being imitated by all of the Western powers) that the managing-director of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), Dominique Strauss-Kahn, warned this past week that the “stimulus actions” of the West (which in essence is nothing more than the printing of money with nothing to back it up) has now become a “threat to democracy” as millions of people are expected to erupt in violence against their governments over the theft of their money and their futures.
Most unfortunately for the American people though is that this IMF warning fell on “deaf ears” in the United States with the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President, James Bullard, saying this week that the US would continue its “stimulus actions” because they “would give more flexibility to US policymakers”, a most absurd statement especially when viewed in the light of the unprecedented debt payments currently looming over the American economy they have no ability whatsoever to pay.
To the ability of the West’s banking giants to save their Nation’s economies, even worse news came this week with the US ratings giant Standards & Poors issuing a warning that “every single bank in Japan, the US, Germany, Spain, and Italy included in S&P’s list of 45 Global lenders remain unsafe", a warning which then lead to one of Europe’s largest banks, Société Générale, warning its clients to prepare for a “total Global Economic Collapse”.
To the fears of Obama over the United States erupting into civil war once the full extent of the rape and pillaging of these peoples by their banks and government becomes known to them, grim evidence now shows the likelihood of this occurring much sooner than later, especially in new poll figures showing that Obama’s approval rating among white Americans has now fallen to 39%. A number made more significant when one realizes that the white population of the United States comprises 74% of their estimated 398 million citizens, or put more ominously in these reports as “over 220 million American people armed to the teeth and ready to explode”.
Though the coming civil war in the United States is being virtually ignored by their propaganda media, the same cannot be said of Russia, where leading Russian political analyst, Professor Igor Panarin has long warned that the economic turmoil in the United States has confirmed his long-held view that the US is heading for collapse, and will divide into separate parts.
Professor Igor Panarin further stated in his warning that “the US Dollar is not secured by anything. The country’s foreign debt has grown like an avalanche, even though in the early 1980s there was no debt. By 1998, when I first made my prediction, it had exceeded $2 trillion. Now it is more than 11 trillion. This is a pyramid that can only collapse.”
What remains to be seen, and these reports do not speculate upon, is if the citizen-soldiers of the United States will fire upon and kill their fellow countrymen during the coming conflict, but if history is to be our guide clearly shows this will be the case as the once great American Nation continues its headlong plunge into the abyss of history. May God have mercy upon all of them.
http://freedomfighterradio.net/?p=12655#more-12655
http://standeyo.com/NEWS/09_USA/091207.civil.war.Obama.troops.html
Tuesday, December 29, 2009
PHOENIX POST - Gold Rush
The Dinar Train is about to pull into the station!
The Enigma - Iraq. It appears that the final piece to this amazing, difficult puzzle is about to be presented to the world, and hopefully, we will see the desired results that we've all been waiting for.
It appears that everyone trying to solve the "puzzle" had a different piece of information that did not quite fit together. Below are a few different takes on what was gathered over the past few years. It makes sense if you read the articles that talk about "settlements", "deliveries" and substitute those words with "currency reval". We will see our economy turn around when we have deliveries/settlements/currency reval. The taxes accrued by the exchanges will put the country back on track. I believe if we don't see this, then the doom and gloomers are going to see exactly what they have been predicting. A full blown economic collapse.
But, that isn't the order of the day and that will not happen!!! Also, note .. substitute the word "seeds" with the word "dinars"... excellent piece to complete the puzzle...
http://articlesofinterest-kelley.blo...aqi-dinar.html
FACTS ABOUT THE IRAQI DINAR AND ITS HISTORY !!
"Tax Due On Settlements Must Crystalise in 2009. Meanwhile the following extraordinary equation also applies. Release of the hijacked Settlement funds by the end of This Calendar year in the context of the necessary restitution of the $47 trillion of stolen funds/assets owed by the US Treasury to the external sovereign Lien Holders, will trigger substantial immediate taxation obligations which will be realizable on the books for US Federal tax purposes in 2009"
http://articlesofinterest-kelley.blo...lace-this.html
POSSIBLE CHANGES TO TAKE PLACE THIS WEEK
"The scheduled New Year's Eve implementation of the Wanta-Reagan-Mitterrand Protocols that would bring $6.2 TRILLION back to the U.S. Treasury, help eliminate the toxic derivatives parked in U.S. banks currently in zombie condition, and also put millions of Americans back to work on a national high-speed rail project at NO U.S. Taxpayer's expense"
http://articlesofinterest-kelley.blo...e-is-also.html
THE "FALSE FLAG" TERRORIST SCARE IS ALSO DESIGNED TO ENABLE A THIRD (3RD) MAJOR EVENT FORTHCOMING IN THE MIDDLE EAST.
On CNBC's "Kudlow & Company," Larry Kudlow is fond of bringing the financial world's attention to the mustard seed parable, which, in a religious context, is often interpreted as being a prediction of Christianity's growth around the world. Jesus compares the kingdom of heaven to a mustard seed. The parable is that mustard is the least among seed, yet grows to become a huge mustard plant that provides shelter for many birds.
http://articlesofinterest-kelley.blo...-all-over.html
THE SEEDS WERE PLANTED YEARS AGO... ALL OVER THE WORLD... WE ARE ABOUT TO SEE THE RESULTS...
"I remember putting the plan forward in the White House situation room with the President asking tough questions of all of us--Treasury, Defense and State--about the economic significance, market acceptance, security, and logistics. Only after all his questions were fully answered did he give the go ahead"
Link ~http://articlesofinterest-kelley.blo...aqi-dinar.html
FACTS ABOUT THE IRAQI DINAR AND ITS HISTORY !!
http://articlesofinterest-kelley.blo...o-station.html
The Enigma - Iraq. It appears that the final piece to this amazing, difficult puzzle is about to be presented to the world, and hopefully, we will see the desired results that we've all been waiting for.
It appears that everyone trying to solve the "puzzle" had a different piece of information that did not quite fit together. Below are a few different takes on what was gathered over the past few years. It makes sense if you read the articles that talk about "settlements", "deliveries" and substitute those words with "currency reval". We will see our economy turn around when we have deliveries/settlements/currency reval. The taxes accrued by the exchanges will put the country back on track. I believe if we don't see this, then the doom and gloomers are going to see exactly what they have been predicting. A full blown economic collapse.
But, that isn't the order of the day and that will not happen!!! Also, note .. substitute the word "seeds" with the word "dinars"... excellent piece to complete the puzzle...
http://articlesofinterest-kelley.blo...aqi-dinar.html
FACTS ABOUT THE IRAQI DINAR AND ITS HISTORY !!
"Tax Due On Settlements Must Crystalise in 2009. Meanwhile the following extraordinary equation also applies. Release of the hijacked Settlement funds by the end of This Calendar year in the context of the necessary restitution of the $47 trillion of stolen funds/assets owed by the US Treasury to the external sovereign Lien Holders, will trigger substantial immediate taxation obligations which will be realizable on the books for US Federal tax purposes in 2009"
http://articlesofinterest-kelley.blo...lace-this.html
POSSIBLE CHANGES TO TAKE PLACE THIS WEEK
"The scheduled New Year's Eve implementation of the Wanta-Reagan-Mitterrand Protocols that would bring $6.2 TRILLION back to the U.S. Treasury, help eliminate the toxic derivatives parked in U.S. banks currently in zombie condition, and also put millions of Americans back to work on a national high-speed rail project at NO U.S. Taxpayer's expense"
http://articlesofinterest-kelley.blo...e-is-also.html
THE "FALSE FLAG" TERRORIST SCARE IS ALSO DESIGNED TO ENABLE A THIRD (3RD) MAJOR EVENT FORTHCOMING IN THE MIDDLE EAST.
On CNBC's "Kudlow & Company," Larry Kudlow is fond of bringing the financial world's attention to the mustard seed parable, which, in a religious context, is often interpreted as being a prediction of Christianity's growth around the world. Jesus compares the kingdom of heaven to a mustard seed. The parable is that mustard is the least among seed, yet grows to become a huge mustard plant that provides shelter for many birds.
http://articlesofinterest-kelley.blo...-all-over.html
THE SEEDS WERE PLANTED YEARS AGO... ALL OVER THE WORLD... WE ARE ABOUT TO SEE THE RESULTS...
"I remember putting the plan forward in the White House situation room with the President asking tough questions of all of us--Treasury, Defense and State--about the economic significance, market acceptance, security, and logistics. Only after all his questions were fully answered did he give the go ahead"
Link ~http://articlesofinterest-kelley.blo...aqi-dinar.html
FACTS ABOUT THE IRAQI DINAR AND ITS HISTORY !!
http://articlesofinterest-kelley.blo...o-station.html
Sunday, December 27, 2009
A SUDDEN WORLDWIDE CURRENCY REVALUATION IS IMMINENT
snip ~ "Some embassies are being sent enormous amounts of US cash to purchase currencies from those govts, quietly. But not £’s. Inside the State Dept there is a sense of sadness & foreboding that ‘something’ is about to happen, unknown, re: a date—just that within 180 days, but could be 120-150 days.” (note - this brings us to January 2010)
A sudden worldwide currency revaluation is imminent
Iraq and the IMF
July 27, 2009
The last Article IV Executive Board Consultation for Iraq was on August 01, 2007. Listed below are items related to Iraq, in reverse chronological order (you can also view items by category). (added ~ Iraq Begins Participation in the IMF’s General Data Dissemination System Press Release No. 09/460December 15, 2009) Link ~
http://www.imf.org/external/np/sec/pr/2009/pr09460.htm
John Rubino: A sudden worldwide currency revaluation is imminent Wed, 2009-07-15
Daily Dispatches
July 15, 2009
Dear Friend:
In his new essay, "A Tremendous Secret," financial writer John A. Rubino, co-author with Gold Money's James Turk of "The Coming Collapse of the Dollar," foresees an imminent worldwide currency revaluation.
This revaluation, Rubino thinks, will correct the biggest financial imbalance of all, the ratio between the value of the world gold supply and the supply of fiat money.
Such a prospect is not quite a secret. You may remember that the British economist Peter Millar contemplated in great detail such a worldwide currency valuation.
http://www.gata.org/node/4843
Such revaluations, as Rubino notes, are not done gradually but overnight, so that no one can trade against them and so there is no chaotic escape from the new currency system after it is imposed.
A clue in support of Rubino's speculation may be found in the communique issued last week by the G8 conference in Italy, which said:
"We will refrain from competitive devaluations of our currencies. ..."
French President calls for global talks on dollar’s role as world currency
Thursday July 9, 2009
L'AQUILA, Italy (AP) -- French President Nicolas Sarkozy called for a revamp of the global currency system, saying Thursday that the dollar's supremacy is outdated.
"We need to ask the question: shouldn't a world that is politically multi-polar correspond to a multi-monetary world economically?" he said in a news conference during a summit of world leaders in L'Aquila, Italy.
Sarkozy compared an overhaul of the global currency system to the enlargement of the Group of Eight structure to encompass fast-growing emerging economies, which were invited to join the Italian summit.
He said the supremacy of the dollar belongs to the post-Second World War era when America was the predominant world power both economically and politically.
"Even if it's a difficult topic, I hope that in the coming months we will talk about currencies and the international monetary system," he said. "There has to be a debate."
Leaders of rich and developing nations agreed not to resort to currency devaluation to gain a competitive advantage, but -- with the absence of the Chinese President Hu Jintao, who returned home to deal with violence in western Xinjiang -- the final statement didn't mention the dollar's status as the world's reserve currency.
"We will refrain from competitive devaluations of our currencies and promote a stable and well-functioning international monetary system," said the leaders of the G-8 industrialized nations, together with Brazil, China, India, Mexico, South Africa and Egypt.
One of the reasons often cited as to why the 1930s Great Depression lasted so long was that countries acted independently to protect their own interest by undermining their currencies. A cheaper currency boosts exports.
Christine Lagarde, France's finance minister, was particularly vocal earlier this year about how Britain was gaining an advantage by doing nothing to stem the sharp fall in the pound against the euro. Though the dollar was not mentioned in the declaration, its future as the world's reserve currency is likely to remain a topic for debate over the coming months or years, as China, Russia and India have expressed their desire to see long-term changes in the international monetary system.
But they have been careful to not push their desire for change too far -- in case the dollar slumps and the value of their large dollar-denominated investments plummet.
China said its officials raised the issue in Italy at a working lunch on Thursday lunch, but British Prime Minister Gordon Brown said he it was not on the formal agenda.
"There was not a serious discussion about this," Brown told reporters. "In this present situation as we're trying to get out of a deep recession, I don't want to give the impression that there's some major change about to happen round the corner that suggests that the present arrangements are destabilized."
White House press secretary Robert Gibbs said that the dollar was not brought up in bilateral talks on Thursday with U.S. President Barack Obama and Brazil President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, despite a lengthy conversation on the economy.
"I think that despite whatever talk you might hear, I don't see that there's any movement away from the notion of the dollar being that currency," Gibbs told reporters.
A sliding dollar would be bad for global growth as it introduces uncertainty into the financial markets and would raise the prices of commodities, such as oil, that are priced in dollars.
It would also make it far more difficult for the U.S. to fund its deficits as investors would be wary of buying up U.S. Treasury debt.
AP reporters Charles Babington and Jane Wardell in L'Aquila and Michael Bushnell in London contributed to this report.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Sarkozy-calls-for-talks-on-apf-1742717360.html?x=0&.v=3
But of course the G8 pledge against "competitive devaluations" was not a pledge against coordinated and cooperative devaluations.
Rubino's essay can be found at his own Internet site, Dollar Collapse, here: "A Tremendous Secret"
Wednesday, 15 July 2009
Last week FOFOA posted a long article on the coming devaluation of the dollar and how it might play out. He thinks it will be sprung on us without warning -- sooner rather than later:
The point is that during times of transition, surprises are always the order of the day. We have a crazy-out-of-control government that has given in to the temptation of printing its way out of this mess.
The deflationists view this as an exercise in futility, while the inflationists say that you cannot print these amounts of dollars without it affecting the markets sooner or later.
A few cunning analysts are hedging their bets saying we will see another deflationary collapse first, followed by a bout of high inflation.
But nearly all of the pundits who are still predicting "doom" have lengthened their horizon to several years to make way for the slow speed at which this train is tumbling down the tracks.
Frankly, I'm not buying it. Call me contrarian, but I say that when the rubber band breaks this time it will snap back with a speed and fury that will make your head spin.
In fact, I think that the longer this drags out (and I'm only talking weeks and months now), the more abrupt the correction will be.
Both the 38 year timeline and the 96 year timeline have created an imbalance in the fractional reserve system that has gone parabolic in the last decade. I am talking about gold. No, the price of gold has not gone parabolic, but the ratio of available gold to outstanding paper currency HAS gone parabolic.
The central banks of the world are well aware of this. It is why they have slowly, inconspicuously changed from net sellers into net buyers. This gradual shift is extremely significant, because as net sellers they were supporting their own fiat regime. But now as net buyers, they, as a group, are stressing it. Why would they do this unless they knew it was about to reset?
This fractional gold reserve imbalance is the one imbalance the media and governments do not want you to know about. This is the one that will RESET the entire system. This imbalance, once corrected, will make central bank fiat currencies sustainable once again.
This is why they are net buyers! Do I think this magnitude of a reset could happen overnight?
Yes, I do. Why? Because that is the way you get the most "bang for your buck". Surprise is the order of the day! "Devaluations always happen by complete surprise as to exert maximum leverage effect."
The idea that we’ll wake up one day to discover that the international monetary system has been “reset” and that our dollar/euro/yen savings have taken a huge hit (while the local currency value of our gold and silver soar) reminds me of an exchange in The Virgin’s Lover, by Philippa Gregory (yes, I like historical romances).
The year is 1560 and the young queen Elizabeth rules a country nearly bankrupted by a Spanish alliance that produced only war and debt. The English treasury has been systemically debasing its coins by clipping and shaving them, so that their face value vastly exceeds their gold content.
Elizabeth’s advisors have decided that the monetary system needs to be reset, and have been importing borrowed gold. On the appointed day they intend to call in the circulating coins and replace them -- by weight rather than face value -- with newly-minted coins.
This devaluation will transfer citizens’ wealth to the government, impoverishing the former and enriching the latter. And if all goes as planned it will come as a surprise to most of the country.
But Elizabeth’s lover, Sir Robert Dudley, learns of the plan and is not happy:
Elizabeth turned and smiled at him and took his hand and held it to her cheek. “My Robert.”
“Tell me, my pretty love,” Robert said quietly. “Why are you bringing in boatloads of Spanish gold from Antwerp, and how are you paying for it all?”
She gave a little gasp and the color went from her face, the smile from her eyes. “Oh,” she said. “That.”
“Yes,” he replied evenly. “That. Don’t you think you had better tell me what is going on?”
“How did you find out? It is supposed to be a great secret.”
“Never mind,” he said. “But I am sorry to learn that you still keep secrets from me, after your promises.”
“I was going to tell you,” she said at once. “It is just that Scotland has driven everything from my mind.” “I am sure,” he sad coldly. “For if you had continued with your forgetfulness till the day that you called in the old coin and issued new, I would have been left with a small treasure room filled with dross, would I not? And left at a substantial loss, would I not? Was it your intention that I should suffer?”
Elizabeth flushed. “I didn’t know you were storing small coin.” “I have lands; my tenants do not pay their rents in bullion, alas. I have trading debts which are paid in small coin. I have chests and chests of pennies and farthings. Do tell me what I may get for them?”
“A little more than their weight,” she said in a very small voice.
“Not their face value?”
She shook her head in silence. “We are calling in the coins and issuing new,” she said. “It is Gresham’s plan -- you know of it yourself. We have to make the coins anew.”
Robert let go of her hand and walked to the center of the room while she sat and watched him wondering what he would do. She realized that the sinking feeling in her belly was apprehension. For the first time in her life she was afraid what a man was thinking of her -- not for policy but for love.
“Robert, don’t be angry with me. I didn’t mean to disadvantage you,” she said and heard the weakness in her own voice.
“I know,” he said shortly. “It is partly that which amazes me. Did you not think that this would cost me money?”
She gasped. “I only thought it had to be a secret, a tremendous secret, or everyone will trade among themselves and the coins will be worse and worse regarded,” she said quickly. “It is an awful thing, Robert, to know that people think that your very coins are next to worthless.”
Now, at least three things can be gleaned from all this:
1. FOFOA is right that the world’s governments stand to gain most from a surprise devaluation, since it will prevent us commoners from preemptively swapping our paper for real things, setting off an inflation that would make an even deeper devaluation necessary.
There's a rumor that I was reluctant to mention when it first started circulating, because it seemed a little too far down the tin foil hat / black helicopter road. But in this context it seems pretty reasonable.
According to widely-followed newsletter writers Harry Schultz and Bob Chapman: ”Some US embassies worldwide are being advised to purchase massive amounts of local currencies; enough to last them a year.
Some embassies are being sent enormous amounts of US cash to purchase currencies from those govts, quietly. But not £’s. Inside the State Dept there is a sense of sadness & foreboding that ‘something’ is about to happen, unknown re a date—just that within 180 days, but could be 120-150 days.”
Bob quotes another source that “Panasonic has told their people to be back in Japan by Sept 09.”
Harry Schultz’s remarkable take on the situation:
“My HSL suspicion is that the elite plan another FDR style “bank holiday” of indefinite length, perhaps very soon, to let the insiders sort-out the bank mess which is getting more out of their control every day. Insiders want/need to impose new bank rules. Widespread nationalization could result, already under way.
It could also lead to a formal US$ devaluation, as FDR did by revaluing gold (& then confiscating it). But devalue against what? The euro? Doubtful. Gold? Maybe. Or vs. the IMF basket of currencies (which seems more likely)—& much in the news recently.
Any kind of bank holiday will push the US$ lower, which may be a bonus benefit to their ongoing scenario of letting the $ fall. Such a fall would get the devaluation they want without having to declare it.
In sum, the insiders want more bank & system control, fewer banks & a lower US$. A bank holiday would suit all their needs."
The details of the plan will spread within an ever-widening circle of banking and government folks who, like Sir Robert, will demand the chance to profit from the insider trade of the century.
Because such a secret is impossible to contain for long, once in place the plan has to be executed as soon as possible. If the rest of us play it right, we’ll be able to at least protect ourselves, and maybe even make out (in percentage terms at least) like Goldman Sachs no doubt will.
Harry Shultz: “Obviously, U can’t open safeboxes if the banks are closed, so plan accordingly. During the FDR bank holiday, thousands of banks never reopened; it was a face-saving way of shutting them down. I would guess the same would occur today; thousands have little or no net value, loaded with debt, bad mortgages.”
FOFOA:
“It matters not one iota how well you do in the stock and bond markets leading up to the reset.
Neither does it matter what the "gold market" does between now and then. The ONLY thing that matters is how you are positioned on that one - fateful - day! Everything will be reset and surprises will abound.”
http://news.goldseek.com/DollarCollapse/1247638020.php
Same Article @ Kitco here: http://www.kitco.com/ind/Rubino/jul152009.html
And at 24hgold here:
http://www.24hgold.com/english/news-gold-silver--a-tremendous-secret-.aspx?article=2192913308G10020&redirect=false&contributor=John+Rubino
Thursday, July 9, 2009
Call Me Contrarian
In the years leading up to mid-2007 keen observers noted dangerous leverage in the US debt markets and some predicted that the bubble would pop. Predictions like this were contrarian while the market was rising, and they were ridiculed.
But then when the bubble did pop, those same contrarians became nearly household names as network TV invited them on to explain their predictions.
From mid-2007 though the end of 2008 a great deal of pressure on the system from the dangerous leverage was relieved. Many pundits switched sides to join the pre- 2007 contrarians, and the spotlight widened.
By late 2008 through March 2009 a few optimistic analysts telling investors to buy back into the markets became the new contrarians.In 2009 we have witnessed a shift from a pseudo-free market overloaded with debt and leverage to a more controlled market driven by public sector stimulus money.
This publicly supported market includes the big Wall Street banks as well as some in Europe. Stimulus money and quantitative easing has shifted much of the pressure from the debt bubble onto the public at large.
Through the process of watching this slow-motion train wreck (still ongoing), the consensus opinion about danger in the system has shifted from an imminent threat to a long-term threat. Before 2007, a few "doomers" were contrary to the consensus, and for the most part they were right.
Late in 2008 and early 2009, a few optimists were contrarian and for the medium term, they have been right. There were some excellent bargains during that time that have paid off very well.
The point is that during times of transition, surprises are always the order of the day. Look to the consensus on both sides, optimistic consensus and pessimistic consensus, and expect a surprise different from that consensus, depending on which direction we go. One of the few things we are confident about is, some very improbable things will happen. Surprises will occur so often they will become routine... I am sure this was only the beginning of a parade of shockers.
-Richard Maybury 06/09
This is true because the market CANNOT reward the majority for long. A zero sum game, the market must reward a minority. If too many people pile into one line of thinking, the market is primed for surprise.
Because of the slow-motion train wreck we are all passengers on, we have reached a unique dichotomy of opinions. This divergence can be boiled down to the inflation-deflation debate, with a few variations.
On the inflation side we have both optimists and pessimists, who view the coming inflation as either good or bad. And on the deflation side we have mainly pessimists who see continued downward pressure on the stock market, the housing market and consumer prices as well.
Running parallel to these general impressions, we have a crazy-out-of-control government that has given in to the temptation of printing its way out of this mess.
The deflationists view this as an exercise in futility, while the inflationists say that you cannot print these amounts of dollars without it affecting the markets sooner or later. A few cunning analysts are hedging their bets saying we will see another deflationary collapse first, followed by a bout of high inflation.
But nearly all of the pundits who are still predicting "doom" have lengthened their horizon to several years to make way for the slow speed at which this train is tumbling down the tracks.
Frankly, I'm not buying it. Call me contrarian, but I say that when the rubber band breaks this time it will snap back with a speed and fury that will make your head spin.
In fact, I think that the longer this drags out (and I'm only talking weeks and months now), the more abrupt the correction will be.
While at one time it may have happened over a month, it could now happen overnight! The laws of economics can only be violated for a limited time frame. So far that time frame is four months and counting. Or viewed another way, 15 years and counting. Viewed yet another way, 38 years and counting. And viewed one more way, 96 years and counting.
These are four waves of economic violation that are converging right in front of us. What kind of correction are we looking at?
I think we will have a correction of ALL FOUR waves of economic and monetary violation... all at once! To see this, you must view the imbalance that has developed during each of these time frames.
On the medium scale we have the imbalance of debt in the West with surplus in the East. This imbalance is an ongoing flow that has not only gone parabolic, but is projected to continue through at least 2025 (BIS study)! How can a trend that has gone parabolic in only 15 years continue for another 15 years?
In the shortest time frame, the imbalance is between market technical patterns, managed through media spin and "other means", and long term (secular) market fundamentals. This imbalance is most obvious in the divergence of the public sector and the private sector. The public sector has been bailed out by the private sector without its consent. In fact, against its wishes. This has created an imbalance of fairness that is boiling under the surface tension of the green shoots media hype.
Both the 38 year timeline and the 96 year timeline have created an imbalance in the fractional reserve system that has also gone parabolic in the last decade. I am talking about gold. No, the price of gold has not gone parabolic, but the ratio of available gold to outstanding paper currency HAS gone parabolic.
The central banks of the world are well aware of this. It is why they have slowly, inconspicuously changed from net sellers into net buyers. This gradual shift is extremely significant, because as net sellers they were supporting their own fiat regime. But now as net buyers, they, as a group, are stressing it. Why would they do this unless they knew it was about to reset?
This fractional gold reserve imbalance is the one imbalance the media and governments do not want you to know about. This is the one that will RESET the entire system.
This imbalance, once corrected, will make central bank fiat currencies sustainable once again.
Do I think this magnitude of a reset could happen overnight? Yes, I do. Why? Because that is the way you get the most "bang for your buck". Surprise is the order of the day!
"Devaluations always happen by complete surprise as to exert maximum leverage effect."It matters not one iota how well you do in the stock and bond markets leading up to the reset.
Neither does it matter what the "gold market" does between now and then. The ONLY thing that matters is how you are positioned on that one - fateful - day! Everything will be reset and surprises will abound.
Some of the entities that you think most deserve to be wiped out will turn out to be the BIGGEST beneficiaries of this "overnight" transfer of wealth. And others who thought they were fully hedged will be wiped out These are the kinds of surprises I expect. I am truly in the mode of "expecting the unexpected" with a timeline shorter than a normal TV season.
Call me contrarian. But please don't call me a "doomer". I do not view this as doom. I realize the difference between the monetary system and the real economy. I recognize the difference between real capital and illusory wealth.
The current monetary system is like a virtual grid, an electronic parasite overlaid on the real world. It can completely vanish and leave the real world totally intact. I look forward to a new beginning for the entire system. A healthy start like we have not seen in generations.
This reset is not something I am pushing for. It is not something I even wanted a mere year and a half ago. Instead, it is what I see as inevitable.
Yes, many will be hurt and I will mourn their losses as some of my own loved ones are not well prepared. But what can I do more than I am already doing? We cannot fight the inevitable.
We can only prepare. Some have said that I am only viewing the forest and not the trees. That I do not care for the individual trees that will be engulfed by the forest fire. I do care, and this is why I blog.
There is NO SOLUTION that will save everyone's dollars. There are simply too many of them.
There is NO SOCIALIST PARADISE. There is only reality and, living in it as we do, we must each walk our own Trail into the future.
Perhaps I am wrong and this fateful day will come later than I expect. I hope I am wrong. More people will make it to the safe harbor in the meantime. But do I venture out into the open sea while I wait?
No, I remain moored to my anchor. So call me contrarian, but follow the consensus voices out into the choppy waters at your own peril. Supplemental reading: What did the top central bankers of the world know and when? This is an excellent forensic examination of our monetary leaders. One has to wonder, if this much was known at the top level of central banking, shared, published and ignored by those with the most power, what preparations were made by the central bankers that did not ignore the warnings?
Sincerely, FOFOA
* * * *
EVENTS AND DATES LEADING TO CURRENCY REVALUATIONS SDRs
~SNIP
Yes, probably, because a global system is not very realistic at the moment. The first choice would clearly be a global system, but this is unlikely to happen straight away, so the first step would be regional systems like the one the Europeans developed. But it would not necessarily imply a single currency? No, what it would imply is not a single currency, not at all. What you need is a kind of anchor:
Europe had an artificial currency called the ECU, which was the currency that everybody, so to say, anchored on. You need something like that for technical reasons - some kind of “numéraire” to which you adjust your currency given the inflation differential.
The mechanics are difficult if you have a group of six currencies and one country has to change vis-Ã -vis all of them. So it is much easier to create an artificial currency and all are changing vis-Ã -vis the artificial currency, which would be a basket of the six currencies.Could it be compared to a regional SDR?
Yes, but the SDR never played that role, but it would be like an SDR
******************
** IMF Executive Board Backs US$250 Billion SDR Allocation to Boost Global Liquidity
Press Release No. 09/264
July 20, 2009
The Executive Board of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has backed an allocation of Special Drawing Rights (SDRs) equivalent to US$250 billion to provide liquidity to the global economic system by supplementing the Fund’s 186 member countries’ foreign exchange reserves.
The equivalent of nearly US$100 billion of the new allocation will go to emerging markets and developing countries, of which low-income countries will receive over US$18 billion.
The proposal will now be submitted to the IMF’s Board of Governors for final approval. “The SDR allocation is a key part of the Fund’s response to the global crisis, offering significant support to its members in these difficult times,” IMF Managing Director Dominique Strauss-Kahn said.
The SDR allocation was requested as part of a US$1.1 trillion plan agreed at the G-20 summit in London in April and endorsed by the International Monetary and Financial Committee (IMFC) to tackle the global financial and economic crisis by restoring credit, growth and jobs in the world economy.
If approved by the Board of Governors with an 85 percent majority of the total voting power in a vote scheduled to close on August 7, the SDR allocation will be in effect on August 28.
"The allocation is a prime example of a cooperative monetary response to the global financial crisis," the Managing Director underscored. The SDR allocation will be made to IMF members that are participants in the Special Drawing Rights Department (currently all members) in proportion to their existing quotas in the Fund, which are based broadly on their relative size in the global economy.
The operation will increase each country’s allocation of SDRs by approximately 74 percent of its quota, and Fund members’ total allocation to an amount equivalent to about $283 billion, from about $33 billion (SDR 21.4 billion). SDRs allocated to members will count toward their reserve assets, acting as a low cost liquidity buffer for low-income countries and emerging markets and reducing the need for excessive self-insurance.
Some members may choose to sell part or all of their allocation to other members in exchange for hard currency--for example, to meet balance of payments needs--while other members may choose to buy more SDRs as a means of reallocating their reserves.
In supporting the allocation proposal, the Executive Board stressed that it should not weaken the pursuit of prudent macroeconomic policies, and should not substitute for a Fund-supported program or postpone needed policy adjustments.
~SNIP
A proposal for a special one-time allocation of SDRs was approved by the IMF's Board of Governors in September 1997 through the proposed Fourth Amendment of the Articles of Agreement.
This allocation would double cumulative SDR allocations to SDR 42.8 billion. Its intent is to enable all members of the IMF to participate in the SDR system on an equitable basis and correct for the fact that countries that joined the Fund after 1981—more than one fifth of the current IMF membership—have never received an SDR allocation.
The Fourth Amendment will become effective when three fifths of the IMF membership (111 members) with 85 percent of the total voting power accept it. Currently, 131 members with 77.68 percent of total voting power had accepted the proposed amendment.
Approval by the United States, with 16.75 percent of total votes, would put the amendment into effect.
REGIONS THAT WILL REVALUE
GCC:
First: Areas of joint cooperation : The economic fields The Supreme Council has reviewed reports referred to it on the implementation of the proposal of the Custodian of the two Holy Mosques on accelerating the march of joint action and to remove all obstacles that hinder its development.
The Council approved the proposed solutions in the economic fields. It directed the authorities and committees operating in the Gulf Cooperation Council to address these obstacles in light of the proposed solutions and guarantee their removal by not later than September 2009 and in such a way to enhance economic integration and deepen economic citizenship for all citizens of the Council.
It also approved the proposed mechanism for the implementation of resolutions of the Supreme Council. In order to strengthen economic integration among the GCC member states and complete its various stages, implement the time frames for the establishment of the Monetary Union, launch the single currency as approved by the Council during Muscat Summit in 2001, the Supreme Council approved the Monetary Union Agreement which covers the legislative and institutional framework.
It also approved the Basic Statute of the Monetary Council and stressed the need to ratify the agreement as soon as possible in order to establish the Monetary Council which would implement the technical requirements of the Monetary Union and make the necessary preparations for the establishment the Central Bank and launch of the single currency.
The Council reviewed the progress in the Common Gulf Market and approved the market document including its principles, requirements, objectives and implementation mechanisms and all the resolutions taken in this respect. The council stressed the importance of its implementation in a manner that achieves maximum benefit for GCC citizens.
The Supreme Council discussed the march of economic integration among GCC member states through follow up reports referred to it regarding the progress made in the customs union, the common market, the monetary union project, and the long-term comprehensive development strategy (2000-2025), water interconnection project between the Council states, the railway project and its feasibility study and the smart ID card which aim at facilitating movement of GCC citizens. .
Under the blessed march led by His Majesty King Hamad Bin Issa Al-Khalifa of the Kingdom of Bahrain, the Supreme Council appreciated the economic vision of the Kingdom of Bahrain, which sets long-term scenarios for future trends of its national economy until the year 2030, and hopes that this vision which constitutes an integrated economic programme would modernize the Bahraini economy, increase productivity, innovation, economic, social and cultural growth and world competitiveness as part of enhancing the joint economic, social and cultural work among the GCC states.
On negotiations with states and economic groupings The Supreme Council has welcomed the signing of the Free Trade Agreement between the GCC member states and Singapore, and expressed hope for the conclusion of the ongoing negotiations on signing free trade agreements with friendly countries and groupings as soon as possible.
The Council regretted the fact that the European Union did not respond positively to the proposals of the Gulf Cooperation Council to conclude negotiations on the Free Trade Agreement between the two sides, which led to the suspension of such negotiations by the GCC member states. (looking good now 7/2009)
http://www.gcc-sg.org/eng/index.php?action=Sec-Show&ID=290&W2SID=26273
ASEAN MONETARY:
Currency Swaps:
The U.S. Federal Reserve extended its agreement to provide $30 billion in U.S. currency to the Bank of Korea by six months until the end of October, South Korea’s central bank said Feb. 4. Peterson Institute for International Economics Monitor
A New Asian Monetary Giant?
Apr 1, 2009
C. Randall Henning assesses the slow birth of a potential new financial cooperative led by China, Japan, South Korea, and the growing economies of Southeast Asia, but they are struggling to define themselves and their mission.
Recorded February 27, 2009. © Peterson Institute for International Economics. Steve Weisman: This is Steve Weisman at the Peterson Institute for International Economics. Our guest is C. Randall Henning, visiting fellow at the Institute and on the faculty at the School of International Service at American University, and the author of a new policy brief on the future of the Chiang Mai Initiative, which is a reference to a new monetary fund that is shaping up in East Asia. Thanks for joining us, Randy.
C. Randall Henning: I’m glad to do this with you.
Steve Weisman: Very few people have heard of the Chiang Mai Initiative (CMI), and you’re making the case that it’s something the whole world should be paying attention to because it is a joining of some very wealthy countries in East Asia who are talking about creating a fund that could become an important player in the global economy. How did the Chiang Mai Initiative get started?
C. Randall Henning: It goes back actually to the Asian financial crisis of 1997–98. At that time, the Japanese Ministry of Finance proposed what was dubbed an Asian Monetary Fund at the time. This was scuttled; it wasn’t created.
Steve Weisman: The United States opposed it, among others, right?
C. Randall Henning: That’s true. The US Treasury opposed it pretty strongly. But also, it lacked support from within the region, at least among some key countries. China in particular was at best ambiguous about it.
Steve Weisman: What were they worried about?
C. Randall Henning: Within Asia, there is some tension between Japan and China over the construction of arrangements like these. I think the Chinese weren’t yet prepared to form a common fund or common arrangement with Japan at that time. But Chinese policy has evolved, and it’s not yet clear that they are going to agree to a common fund in the form of this multilateralized CMI.
But they have been supportive of the development of the Chiang Mai Initiative in the form of a network of bilateral swap arrangements. And that’s the next pointin the history: In 2000, in the Thai city of Chiang Mai, the ASEAN+3 group agreed to launch a network of bilateral swap arrangements and have been quietly and slowly forming this network over the last several years.
Steve Weisman: It’s not yet a multilateral funding arrangement like a regional IMF?
C. Randall Henning: Right. It is a network of bilateral swaps between pairs of countries: a Northeast Asian country (a potential creditor like Japan, China, or Korea) and a Southeast Asian country like Malaysia, Indonesia,or the Philippines. What they’re now talking about very seriously is combining these bilateral swaps into a common fund that they would manage on a regional basis collectively.
That’s what they refer to as multilateralization. I use the word multilateral to refer to the multilateral institutions like the IMF and the World Bank. They like to use the word multilateral or multilateralization to refer to collective regional management of these swaps in the form of a common fund.
Steve Weisman: The richer countries involved here possess trillions of dollars of reserves in aggregate. So if they did some kind of multilateral fund, they would have a lot of money potentially to put into it.
C. Randall Henning: Absolutely. These 13 countries, the 10 countries of ASEAN and the three countries in Northeast Asia—China, South Korea, and Japan—they hold about $3.5 trillion collectively. So if they put even a small proportion of these reserves at the disposal of a common fund, that would command quite a lot of resources. Now, they’ve agreed that the size of this common fund would be $120 billion. They haven’t yet agreed to create the fund but if they agree on the other elements of the fund, it would be $120 billion.
Steve Weisman: The Clinton administration Treasury officials who were skeptical of this idea, whatever happened to them?
C. Randall Henning: Some of the people who scuttled the Japanese proposal in 1997 are back serving in the Obama administration: Larry Summers, director of the National Economic Council at the White House, and Timothy Geithner, secretary of the Treasury.
Steve Weisman: Have they changed their minds? C. Randall Henning: We’re going to have to ask them. They, and the Treasury department more generally, haven’t said very much about these arrangements for some time. Circumstances have changed since 1997, and I think the United States should be conditionally supportive of these arrangements.
Steve Weisman: What are the conditions under which the United States would extend support?
C. Randall Henning: I think the United States and the global community have an interest in these arrangements being transparent and coordinated with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and that they be reported and discussed within the IMF executive board. So provided that these Asian governments were willing to do that, I think the United States should accept these arrangements because the Asians would be contributing substantial resources that can flow in parallel with IMF funds and potentially US funds in treating financial crises in the area.
Steve Weisman: Do you see any danger of them going separately from the IMF and having their own deals to bail out countries in times of crises?
C. Randall Henning: That of course is what a number of people are worried about. I’m not worried about that at this point. First of all, there are differences of view within Asia about how to construct and administer these arrangements, and I don’t think that they are willing to break with the IMF right now.
They’re aware that they have to make more progress in the development of their regional surveillance mechanism. Before East Asia is going to be in a position to define any conditionality that would flow through a multilateralized CMI, until they develop a regional capacity for analysis and surveillance, they’re goin to continue to rely on the IMF to help define the conditions that should be attached to the financing.
So the way it’s structured now in the bilateral swap arrangements under the CMI is that most of that money would not flow to a borrower in Southeast Asia unless that borrower also negotiated an IMF program. So it’s designed as a parallel line of defense. But that will continue under a multilateralized CMI, although they may change the ratio between the linked portion and the unlinked portion in these arrangements.
Steve Weisman: These countries in Southeast Asia and, well, Northeast Asia, many of them have complained about being underrepresented in terms of voting shares and leadership of the IMF.
Is the Chiang Mai Initiative a way of also pressuring the IMF to reform, as many people advocate, and restructure its leadership?
C. Randall Henning: It has that incentive effect. And I think the East Asians are largely justified in this. I think many of these governments do deserve larger shares of quotas and votes within the IMF. To the extent that it does provide an incentive for others to overcome the difficult hurdles in those negotiations within the Fund to redistribute quotas, I think that’s so much the better.
That’s something that the IMF, for its part, really does need to address. There in particular, we’d like to see some European governments be more willing to consolidate representation and quota shares within the Fund in order to make space for other deserving countries or the countries that deserve larger shares.
Steve Weisman: Finally, Randy, you’re a political scientist and economist: What do you make of the fact that in the 10 or 11 years since this initiative started, countries like China and Japan, which were wary of each other, are now cooperating? There’s this new kind of evolving identity in East Asia. What political consequences do you see flowing from that?
C. Randall Henning: It will be really interesting to see whether these governments agree to cross this threshold together. When I say cross this threshold, Imean create a common institution where they agree to be bound by a joint decision, because that’s something that they haven’t been willing to do in the past. It’ll be a tough decision for the Japanese and Chinese, Koreans and others. If they in fact do it, it’ll be a real signal that something fundamental has changed within the region.
It’s not clear yet; we should have a better indication in early May when there will be another ASEAN+3 finance ministers’ meeting in Indonesia. At that moment, we’ll be able to drive a more definite conclusion about which direction these arrangements are going in. Steve Weisman:
Randy Henning, thanks very much for joining us today on Peterson Perspectives.
C. Randall Henning:
Thank you, Steve. Glad to do it.
Feb 20, 2009
Asian crisis meeting
BANGKOK -
ASIAN finance ministers will consider expanding a currency swap scheme to US$120 billion (S$184.3 billion) at a meeting this weekend to help protect their economies from the global economic downturn.
The gathering of the finance chiefs of the 10 member Asean grouping, plus Japan, China and South Korea on the Thai island of Phuket on Sunday will also discuss how they can cooperate to help the region get through the crisis.
Most are heavily reliant on demand from the United States and the euro zone, which have both slumped into deep recessions following the financial storm that swept worldwide following the dismantling of Wall Street last October.
'The biggest issue will be the economic problems, and we will discuss ideas and mutual measures to deal with,' host of the meeting, Thai Finance Minister Korn Chatikavanij, told Reuters. 'We are hoping the meeting will find policies and measures among the group to tackle the problems together,' Mr Korn said. Last week, Mr Korn said the meeting would discuss raising the size of the fund to US$120 billion from US$80 billion. 'This should go well because, from discussions with senior officials, everyone thinks the same way,' he said, without elaborating.
The Asean members plus Japan, China and South Korea in May last year pledged to pool bilateral currency swap arrangements under the so-called Chiang Mai Initiative in an US$80 billion multilateral fund that could be tapped in emergencies.
Under that agreement, Japan, China and South Korea would provide 80 per cent of the funding and Asean countries the rest.
On Thursday, Asian Development Bank President Haruhiko Kuroda urged Asian countries to cooperate on foreign exchange rates and make the currency swap network more effective, suggesting they should be able to raise the size of the swaps without the need for IMF-mandated reform programmes.
The idea behind the swap is to allow countries hit by short-term liquidity shortages to borrow foreign reserves from other countries to absorb selling pressure on their currencies.
Most bilateral swap lines in the network are designed to cope with emergencies such as a balance of payments crisis, and 80 per cent of the funding is linked to IMF-mandated programmes.
Mr Korn has said the expanded swap scheme would have to be ratified by regional leaders at a summit from Feb 27 to March 1 in Hua Hin, Thailand. It could then be implemented by the end of the year. The ministers are also expected to discuss how to deal with the economic downturn and other forms of cooperation to bolster the region's defence against the global crisis.
Asian currencies have fallen this year against the dollar after most suffered steep falls last year. The Korea won, for example, fell more than 25 per cent last year and has fallen another 16 per cent so far this year. Exports from Asia have crashed in the last few months as demand fell away in developed countries. Japan, Taiwan, South Korea and Singapore have all reported record falls in exports.
– REUTERS to be continued....
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
Posts
